With the effective halt in maritime cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz hitting crude oil flows to India, the US has issued a temporary 30-day “waiver” to allow Indian refiners to buy Russian crude that is already sitting in tankers on water.India had, in recent months, cut down significantly on its oil imports from Russia amid trade negotiations with the US, as Washington made it a pre-requisite for scrapping its 25% additional penal tariff on India.But with the Strait of Hormuz — through which India gets over 40% of its oil imports — effectively blocked, Indian refiners had already started buying more Russian oil already available in the high seas, according to trade sources and vessel tracking data.“President Trump’s energy agenda has resulted in oil and gas production reaching the highest levels ever recorded. To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorizes transactions involving oil already stranded at sea,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on social media platform X“India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of U.S. oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage,” he posted.According to industry insiders and experts, the move will provide some short-term relief to India — the world’s third-largest oil importer with an import dependence level of over 88%.But this alone may not be able to fully offset the country’s exposure to West Asian oil that came through the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. Experts also see it as part of Donald Trump’s effort to prevent a further and sustained spike in international oil prices, given the mid-term elections in the US later this year.Story continues below this adAround 2.5–2.7 million bpd of India’s crude imports — accounting for around half of the country’s total oil imports — have transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent months. These are mainly from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea — is seen as the most important oil transit chokepoint globally, handling approximately one-fifth of global liquid petroleum consumption and global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade.Tapping floating Russian crude stocksAccording to data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler, around 130 million barrels of crude is estimated to be on ships on water as of early March. These include significant volumes across the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and Suez Canal routes, and around Singapore, which could potentially be redirection towards Indian ports.“With the (US) waiver now in place, refiners could quickly resume purchases, potentially pushing Russian inflows around 1.6 to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the near term. While this provides a short-term logistical buffer, it cannot fully offset India’s around 2.6 million bpd exposure to Middle Eastern crude, and competition from Chinese buyers for the same Russian barrels will limit the upside,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.Story continues below this adAccording to trade sources, over 15 million barrels of Russian oil are in waters close to India, primarily in the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indian Ocean. Another around 7 million barrels of Russian crude is estimated to be in tankers positioned around Singapore. These cargoes can reach Indian ports within a week or so.Also Read | Expert Explains: ‘The Strait of Hormuz is simply too vital an artery to remain closed for too long’There were some early signs that India was increasing its intake of Russian crude by tapping cargoes already on water. The Indian Express had reported on Thursday that two crude oil tankers laden with Russian oil, which were earlier showing East Asia as their destination, arrived at Indian ports. Daily tanker positions along the Strait of Hormuz from Feb 1 to Feb 15. The New York TimesAnother Russian tanker, while still showing Singapore as its destination, seemed to be heading towards India’s west coast instead. On Wednesday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow was ready to satisfy additional demand for oil from India and China, if the need arises.“From a market perspective, the policy shift could also tighten the availability of Russian export barrels globally. As Indian refiners re-enter the market for these grades, the deep discounts previously associated with Russian crude could narrow significantly, and prompt cargoes may even trade at premiums if competition for available barrels intensifies,” Ritolia said.Story continues below this adTrade sources indicated that the war in West Asia has already led to Russian oil being sold at a premium, instead of a discount, which was the case till last month. Despite Russian oil now available at a premium, Indian refiners are expected to ramp up purchases as in the prevailing circumstances, securing energy supplies is significantly more important than price consideration.Conflict forces Trump’s hand ahead of US midtermsIn early February, the US and India announced an interim trade agreement under which the 25% tariff for buying Russian oil was scrapped. The US claimed that India had committed to halt oil imports from Russia, but New Delhi did not comment on this claim.There was, however, a visible reduction in oil imports from Moscow. In February, India imported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude, almost half of the 2025 peak of over 2 million bpd, as per tanker data. Loadings of Russian crude for Indian ports, which averaged 1.7 million bpd last year, was just 0.7 million bpd in February.The US-Israel conflict with Iran, which has widened to include other parts of West Asia, has now forced Trump’s hand to undo, although temporarily, something that he had been pushing for months. From exerting tremendous pressure on India to cut its Russian oil imports, Washington is now fine with New Delhi to ramp up oil imports from Russia.Story continues below this adAlso Read | Trump says US economy ‘is bigger, better, richer’. Is it really?Trump’s key objective in this case could be to ensure that the supply constraint in the international market doesn’t become too acute. Major supply gaps would lead to a surge in oil prices on a sustained basis, which would in turn lead to higher fuel prices in the US. And the Trump administration evidently doesn’t want that in a midterm election year. Low energy prices were a key election plank in Trump’s presidential campaign. The West Asia conflict has already led to a spike in international oil prices. The last thing Trump would want is for the prices to go up further and for longer.“…with US midterm elections taking place this year, President Donald Trump is highly motivated to keep a lid on domestic gasoline prices and will act (to the best of his abilities) to contain escalation accordingly. The US population does not want to be embroiled in another drawn-out, expensive foreign conflict, especially with the domestic inflation implications. As such, ensuring that oil prices do not spike over a four-week period is of critical importance for the Trump administration,” Kpler said in a recent note.“One potential tool to help would be to turn more of a blind eye to Russian oil flows at present, allowing India and China to buy those barrels more openly as well as draw down on Russian and Venezuelan barrels in floating storage. The financing of Russian crude trade may become more difficult with the UAE coming under attack and the risk of capital flight from the region, but it is reasonable to expect more Russian crude discharges as the conflict continues,” it added.