MALACHY BROWNE, AARON BOXERMAN2026年3月6日 The Feb. 28 strike that hit an elementary school in the southern Iranian town of Minab is the deadliest known episode of civilian casualties since the United States and Israel attacked Iran — and no side has yet taken responsibility.2月28日对伊朗南部米纳卜市一所小学的袭击是美国和以色列打击伊朗以来已知的导致平民死亡最惨重的事件——而到目前为止，没有任何一方承认对此负责。But a body of evidence assembled by The New York Times — including newly released satellite imagery, social media posts and verified videos — indicates the school building was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred at the same time as attacks on an adjacent naval base operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.但《纽约时报》整理的一系列证据——包括新发布的卫星图像、社交媒体帖子和经核实验证的视频——表明，这栋校舍是在一次精准打击中遭到严重破坏的，而在同一时间，邻近的伊斯兰革命卫队海军基地也遭到了袭击。And official statements that U.S. forces were attacking naval targets near the Strait of Hormuz, where the I.R.G.C. base is located, suggest they were most likely to have carried out the strike.由于伊朗革命卫队的这个基地就位于霍尔木兹海峡附近，而美军官方声明称正在打击该地区的各处海军目标，因此这次袭击极有可能是美军实施的。The White House referred The Times to remarks by the press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, at a news conference on Wednesday. When asked if the United States had conducted the airstrike on the school, she responded, “Not that we know of,” adding that “the Department of War is investigating this matter.”白宫让《纽约时报》参考新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在周三新闻发布会上的表态。当被问及美国是否对这所学校进行了空袭时，她回答说，“据我们所知没有”，并补充道，“战争部正在调查此事。”Determining precisely what happened has been impeded by the lack of visible weapons fragments and the inability of outside reporters to reach the scene. The total death toll has yet to be independently confirmed, but Iranian health officials and state media said the strike had killed at least 175 people, many of them children, at the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school.由于看不到武器碎片，外部记者也无法抵达现场，因此很难准确确定到底发生了什么。死亡总人数尚未得到独立证实，但伊朗卫生官员和官方媒体称，袭击造成沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学至少175人死亡，其中许多是儿童。卫星图像显示出2月28日伊朗南部米纳卜市小学遭受袭击后的破坏程度。In the several days since the attack, U.S. officials have neither confirmed nor denied responsibility. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that an investigation was underway. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesman, told reporters on Sunday that “as of now,” he was not aware of any Israeli military operation “in that area” at the time.在袭击发生后的几天里，美国官员既没有确认也没有否认责任。美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯周三表示，相关调查正在进行中。以色列军方发言人纳达夫·肖沙尼周日对记者表示，“截至目前”，他并不知道以色列军队当时在“该地区”有任何军事行动。U.S. officials in public statements have indicated that on the day in question, U.S. planes were conducting operations in the region where the school was located.美国官员在公开声明中表示，事发当天，美军飞机确实在这所学校所在的地区执行了军事行动。2月28日空袭中丧生的儿童和老师下葬前，工作人员操作挖掘机在伊朗米纳卜的一处墓地挖了近100座坟墓。The elementary school is in the small southern town of Minab, more than 600 miles from Tehran but near the critical waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. Since Saturday is the start of the Iranian workweek, children and teachers were in class at the time of the strike, health officials and Iranian state media said.这所小学位于伊朗南部小城米纳卜，距离德黑兰近1000公里，但靠近战略要道霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗的工作周从星期六开始，据伊朗卫生官员和官方媒体称，袭击发生时孩子们和教师正在上课。The strikes were first reported on social media shortly after 11:30 a.m. local time. An analysis of those posts — as well as bystander photos and videos captured within an hour of the strikes — help corroborate that the school was hit at the same time as the naval base. One video, pinpointed by geolocation experts, showed several large plumes of smoke billowing from the area of the base and the school.袭击发生不久后，当地时间上午11点30分刚过，社交媒体上首次出现了相关消息。对这些帖子以及袭击发生后一小时内拍摄的目击者照片和视频的分析，有助于证实该校与海军基地几乎同时遭到袭击。其中一段经地理定位专家确认的视频显示，从基地和学校所在区域升起了几股巨大的浓烟。Images showing extensive damage to the school building were shared by an Iranian rights group soon after, and videos posted by Iranian media and independently verified by The Times showed throngs of people searching through rubble for survivors and victims.一个伊朗人权组织很快发布了学校建筑遭到严重破坏的图片，伊朗媒体发布并经《纽约时报》独立核实的视频显示，大批民众在废墟中搜寻幸存者和遇难者。Another video was filmed by a motorist passing the entrance of the Revolutionary Guards base. The video showed the Revolutionary Guards’ insignia on two entrances to the compound and signs for a naval medical command.另一段视频由一名驾车经过革命卫队基地入口的司机拍摄。视频中可以看到基地两个入口处的革命卫队标识，以及指向海军医疗指挥部的指示牌。《纽约时报》的分析发现，被击中的军事建筑上方升起了黑色烟柱。To more fully assess the damage inside the base and what might have caused it, The Times ordered new satellite imagery from the provider Planet Labs. An image taken on Wednesday further corroborated the chronology.The imagery shows that multiple precision strikes hit at least six Revolutionary Guards buildings along with the school. Four buildings inside the naval base were completely destroyed and two other buildings showed impact points at the center of their roofs, consistent with such precision hits.为了更全面地评估基地内部的损毁情况及其可能原因，《纽约时报》从卫星图像提供商Planet Labs订购了新的卫星图像。周三拍摄的一张图像进一步印证了事件发生的时间顺序。Wes J. Bryant, a national security analyst who served in the U.S. Air Force and was a senior adviser on civilian harm at the Pentagon, reviewed the new satellite images and concluded that all of the buildings, including the school, had been hit with “picture perfect” target strikes.图像显示，多次精确打击击中了革命卫队基地内至少六栋建筑以及这所学校。海军基地内的四座建筑被完全摧毁，另外两座建筑的屋顶中央有明显的撞击点，符合精准打击的特征。Mr. Bryant, who has been critical of the Trump administration, said the most likely explanation was that the school had been a “target misidentification” — that forces had attacked the site without realizing that it might have had large numbers of civilians inside.曾在空军服役、在五角大楼担任过平民伤害问题高级顾问的国家安全分析师韦斯·布莱恩特分析了这些新卫星图像后得出结论，所有建筑（包括学校）都是被“堪称完美”的目标打击命中的。Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a news conference on Wednesday that U.S. forces were carrying out strikes at the time along southern Iran. A map he presented showed that an area including Minab had been targeted by strikes in the first 100 hours of the operation, although it did not explicitly identify the town.一直对特朗普政府持批评态度的布莱恩特表示，最有可能的解释是，这所学校被“误判为目标”，也就是说，发动攻击的部队在打击时没有意识到该地点可能有大量平民。At the same briefing, General Caine said Israeli forces had predominantly been operating farther north in the country. He also identified several U.S. military operations targeting the southern and southeastern areas of Iran, without mentioning any Israeli activity there.参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在周三的新闻发布会上表示，美军当时正在伊朗南部实施打击。他展示的一张地图显示，在行动的最初100小时内，包括米纳卜在内的地区成为了打击目标，尽管地图并未明确标出该市。在同一场简报会上，凯恩将军表示，以色列军队主要在伊朗更靠北的地区行动。他还提到，美军在伊朗南部和东南部开展了多项军事行动，但没有提及以军在当地有任何行动。Specifically, General Caine said: “Along the southern axis, the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln strike group has continued to provide pressure from the sea along the southeastern side of the coast and has been attriting naval capability all along the strait.”The school at one point was part of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval base, according to satellite images from 2013 reviewed by The Times. Roads had led from other areas of the base to the school building that was struck on Saturday. But by September 2016, satellite images show, the same building was partitioned off and was no longer connected to the base.Publicly available historical satellite imagery shows the structure bears the hallmarks of a school, including a sports field and other recreational areas that were added over time.凯恩将军具体介绍说：“在南部战线，林肯号航空母舰打击群继续从海上对东南沿海施加压力，并持续消耗霍尔木兹海峡沿线的伊朗海军能力。”根据《纽约时报》查阅的2013年卫星图像，这所学校曾一度是革命卫队海军基地的一部分。当时，从基地其他区域有道路通向周六遭到打击的那栋学校建筑。但卫星图像显示，到2016年9月，这栋建筑已被隔离出来，不再与基地相连。“Given the U.S.’s intelligence capabilities, they should have known that a school was in the vicinity,” said Beth Van Schaack, a former State Department official who teaches at Stanford University’s Center for Human Rights and International Justice.公开的历史卫星图像显示，该建筑具备学校的典型特征，包括一个运动场和后来增加的其他活动设施。 Some theories have circulated online suggesting that a misfired Iranian missile was responsible for the strike on the school, but The Times and other online analysts debunked the claim, in part by determining that a single errant missile wouldn’t have caused such precise and targeted damage to several buildings across the naval base.斯坦福大学人权与国际司法中心教师、美国国务院前官员贝丝·范沙克表示：“以美国的情报能力，他们本应该知道附近有一所学校。”U.S. officials say the strike is still under investigation. If it’s confirmed to be an American bomb that hit Shajarah Tayyebeh, one question is likely to be whether the school strike was a mistake or whether it was targeted based on outdated information.网络上也流传一些说法，称袭击学校的是一枚误射的伊朗导弹，但《纽约时报》和其他网络分析人士已否定了这一说法，部分依据是：一枚偏离的导弹不可能对海军基地内的几栋建筑造成如此精确和有针对性的破坏。Janina Dill, an expert on the laws of war at Oxford University, said attackers were obligated to “verify the status” of what they targeted to ensure that civilians were not being harmed. Failure to do so could violate international law, she added.美国官员表示，这次打击仍在调查之中。如果最终确认击中沙贾拉·塔耶贝小学的是一枚美国炸弹，那么一个关键问题将是：袭击学校究竟是一次误击，还是基于过时情报而进行的目标锁定。Reporting was contributed by Sanam Mahoozi, Kiana Hayeri, Parin Behrooz, Aric Toler, Shawn McCreesh and Eric Schmitt. Videos produced by Alexander Cardia, Cynthia Silva and Dmitriy Khavin. Graphics editing was contributed by Rafaela Balster.牛津大学战争法专家贾尼娜·迪尔表示，攻击方有义务“核实目标的身份”，以确保不会伤害平民。她补充说，如果未能做到这一点，可能会违反国际法。Sanam Mahoozi、Kiana Hayeri、Parin Behrooz、Aric Toler、Shawn McCreesh和Eric Schmitt对本文有报道贡献。视频制作：Alexander Cardia,、Cynthia Silva和Dmitriy Khavin。Rafaela Balster对图表编辑有所贡献。Malachy Browne是《纽约时报》视觉调查团队深度报道负责人。他曾作为团队成员获得2020和2023年普利策国际报道奖。Aaron Boxerman是时报记者，报道以色列和加沙新闻。他常驻耶路撒冷。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。