Quantum Threat to Bitcoin? Let’s Be Real Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDFeelsStrategy🗣 I often see people worrying about quantum computers breaking Bitcoin. As someone with a technical background, let me explain briefly why this is not something the market should focus on right now. 📝 To break BTC wallet cryptography using quantum computing, estimates suggest we would need around 13 million physical qubits. Today the most advanced quantum systems operate at roughly ~100 qubits. 📊 That means the technology would need to grow about 124,000× from current levels. 💡 Even if we assume extremely optimistic progress similar to Moore's Law, meaning computing power doubling every 2 years (which is already optimistic since quantum progress is closer to doubling every ~3 years), the math looks like this: 2ⁿ = 124,000 n = log₂(124 000) ≈ 17 doublings 17 × 2 years ≈ ~34 years 📅 That puts us somewhere around 2060 in the most optimistic scenario. 📊 According to data from Goldman Sachs and Innosight, about ~50% of companies in the S&P 500 get replaced every 10 years. And people worry about a quantum threat in 2060? 🚫 I also don’t see a reason to include extreme “breakthrough architecture” scenarios in the base case. Especially since work on quantum-resistant cryptography is already underway. ⚠️ In my view, there is actually a much more realistic long-term risk for Bitcoin in the next ~10 years. It’s related to the fact that the halving algorithm is very static, and that could create structural challenges over time. If you’re interested, I can break that down in the next post.