Chili's Is Winning on Value, Yet Its Parent Company's Stock Still Looks Cheap

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More than 90% of Chili's restaurants in the U.S. are company-owned, which means management controls everything from menu changes to kitchen upgrades.Before the turnaround, the average Chili's generated around $370,000 in restaurant-level profit. At the end of fiscal 2025, that figure stood at $790,000. Despite the underlying progress, the stock still trades at a below-market multiple.Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »Image source: Getty Images.Chili's was repositioned at exactly the right time. In recent years, quick-service and fast-casual chains pushed prices so high that consumers started looking elsewhere for value.Chili's already had its 3 For Me menu in place, starting at $10.99 for a full-service meal at a discount to most fast-food joints. The result was traffic-led growth, with same-store visits (comps) up 16.3% in 2025.That strength carried into the new fiscal year. Brinker reported second-quarter 2026 results on Jan. 28, with comps growing 8.6% and traffic up 2.7%. That's on top of 31% comps growth in the year-ago quarter.When a sit-down meal at Chili's costs about the same as a Chipotle bowl, consumers are choosing table service. That's how Brinker fills the seats. The pricing strategy is disciplined, too. The $10.99 promotion accounts for under 8% of total sales.The risk is straightforward. Chili's is now lapping comps growth of 31.6% from the year-ago quarter. The rate of increase is moderating, and that's what investors are worried about in the near term. Management guided for comps growth in each quarter of fiscal 2026 and has delivered through the second, but this quarter is the toughest comparison yet.Profitability tells a similar story. Restaurant-level margins have expanded from 11.9% in 2022 to 19.1% in the most recent quarter, but the gains are getting tougher to come by. Over the same period, free cash flow grew at an average annual rate of 60% (recalculated through the second quarter of 2026), even as management reinvested heavily in store redesigns and kitchen upgrades.Brinker is refreshing about 10% of its restaurants each year with updated kitchens and dining rooms and plans to start growing Chili's net store count in fiscal 2027. 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