4 min readMar 7, 2026 12:16 PM IST First published on: Mar 7, 2026 at 12:16 PM ISTWritten by Brabim KarkiEarly vote counts from Nepal’s general election — the first since the protests in September 2025 brought down KP Sharma Oli’s government — are painting a picture no one quite expected, with Balendra Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) on the brink of a landslide victory. The party has already secured victories in 27 constituencies and is leading in 89 seats across Nepal. Shah himself, who is the party’s prime ministerial candidate, is leading in Jhapa-5 with 42,543 votes, with former Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli trailing at 11,427 votes (at the time of publishing).AdvertisementClearly, Nepali voters aren’t just switching parties. They are replacing an old guard tainted by allegations of corruption and political impunity. In this election, Nepal’s old political heavyweights are struggling not just for votes, but also for legitimacy.Perched between India and China, the Himalayan nation has struggled with political instability for decades. Since 2008, Nepal has seen 14 different governments, not one of which has completed a full five-year term. The majority of young people are grappling with a lack of jobs. Youth unemployment is around 20 per cent, forcing thousands of youths to toil abroad as migrants, their earnings amounting to a third of Nepal’s GDP. Youth migration, unemployment, and fragile service delivery have hollowed out faith in traditional parties.Nepal’s politics has been a mess for decades. The same faces — Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba, Pushpa Kamal Dahal — have kept cycling through power, promising the moon but delivering little. Corruption has permeated every level of government; according to Transparency International, Nepal is one of the most corrupt countries in Asia.AdvertisementBalendra Shah, popularly known as Balen, is a rapper-turned-politician who won a resounding victory to become the mayor of Kathmandu in May 2022. During the Gen Z protests, he supported the youths’ calls for the prime minister’s resignation, urging protesters not to destroy property. The millennial rapper, who tamed the city’s trash crisis as mayor, thus emerged as a trusted leader during this period of upheaval and youth protesters ask him to lead the country after the former prime minister stepped down following the protests. Rabi Lamichhane, the 51-year-old chairperson of the Rastriya Swatantra party (RSP), and the 35-year-old Shah formed an alliance ahead of the election. Both leaders pledged to address the demands of the younger generation following September’s protests.The real test for the RSP will be turning these early cheers into lasting change. The party’s appeal has always rested on practicality over ideology. As mayor, Shah brought down commercial and residential buildings that were built without proper permits. He widened the pavements of Kathmandu’s major cities, and his administration managed garbage collection efficiently, implementing several measures to improve cleanliness, including daily road cleaning and maintenance. Lamichhane has built his following on the same straightforward pitch — cut the nonsense, deliver services, hold officials responsible.you may likeIf the RSP ends up forming or leading the next government, as looks likely, it should prioritise the basic demands of people. The new government should push for infrastructure that actually connects villages to markets. It should make anti-corruption rules stick, not just use them for political rhetoric, and it should invest seriously in education and skills so that young Nepalis don’t have to board planes to find dignity. The new government will also need to keep foreign policy pragmatic — good relations with both neighbours, India and China, without letting anyone dominate. The old parties, for their part, need to do some honest soul-searching. If they want to stay relevant, they’ll have to show they can learn from this wake-up call instead of doubling down on old habits.None of this will be easy. Governing Nepal has always been harder than campaigning, which is about promises and energy. To govern means dealing with fragile coalitions, bureaucracy, and constant political bargaining. Some of RSP’s candidates are untested at the national level, and the challenge before them is steep.After years of Nepal’s politics being dominated by a triumvirate of parties, voters have rung the bell for change. Whether the RSP can turn this moment into real progress remains to be seen. But the fact that voters are willing to bet on fresh faces is itself encouraging.Karki is a Kathmandu-based author and businessman