ES (S&P 500) Futures - Analyses, KeyZones, Setups Tue, (Oct 7)E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME_MINI:ES1!MyAlgoIndexContext We’re sitting just under a shallow ceiling built around 6,785–6,805 after holding a higher-low near 6,766. Trend is still constructive on higher timeframes, but intraday momentum is chopping under that overhead band. Expect two-way trade early with directional follow-through only if one of the edges gives way. Session timing • NY AM window: 9:30–11:00 ET (primary) • Lunch manage-only: 12:00–13:00 ET • NY PM window: 13:30–16:00 ET (primary continuation/reversal window) Catalyst windows (be alert for volatility bursts) • 8:30 ET — morning data drop • ~10:00–11:00 ET — speaker risk window • 13:00 ET — rates/auction impact window Primary setups (Level-KZ style, 15m→5m→1m sequence) 1.Break-and-defend LONG (continuation) Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,785–6,786 (R1). Execute: 5m pullback holds above 6,782 and re-closes up; 1m higher-low entry. Risk: Hard SL beyond the 15m trigger wick (±0.25–0.50). Targets: 6,797–6,805 (R2), then 6,820–6,835 (R3). If R3 converts to support, trail for 6,860–6,875 (R4). Idea: Turn the shelf into a floor and ride the expansion. 2.Quick-reclaim LONG (bounce) at S1/S2 Trigger: Liquidity sweep into 6,775–6,772 or 6,766–6,760, then a 15m close back above the level. Execute: 5m re-close up + 1m pop-and-go. Targets: First magnet 6,782–6,786; stretch 6,797–6,805. Notes: Works best in NY AM; avoid if we grind down into the level slowly. 3.Failure-to-defend SHORT (rotation down) Trigger: 15m body close below 6,775, then 5m lower-high under 6,775 that can’t reclaim. Execute: Sell the 1m pop-and-fail under the re-test. Targets: 6,766–6,760 → 6,742–6,735; leave a runner for 6,724–6,715 if momentum expands. Invalidation: Any 15m reclaim and hold back above 6,782 kills the idea. 4.Pop-and-fail SHORT at R3 (fade the cap) Trigger: First push into 6,820–6,835 stalls (upper wicks on 15m), then a 5m lower-high below the spike. Execute: 1m rejection entry with risk tucked above the wick. Targets: 6,805 → 6,785; runner for 6,766 if breadth flips risk-off. Notes: Don’t overstay; if buyers “walk it up” and print strong closes through 6,835, flip bias to continuation (Setup 1 extension). Price Roadmap for the Day So, here’s how to roll with today’s market. Path A — Range to Upside Break: First up, we want to stay above 6,775 early on. If we can turn 6,785 into dependable support, we're looking to push towards 6,797–6,805. If buyers defend that re-test, we might see a move up to 6,820–6,835. Control shifts to buyers when that range becomes support, and that opens up the possibility of hitting 6,860–6,875 later in the PM session. Path B — Failure from the Ceiling: Now, if we spike into 6,820–6,835 but can’t hold it, then a lower high under 6,805 could take control back to sellers. That sets us up for a drop to 6,785 and maybe even 6,766, with 6,742–6,735 acting like a “magnet pocket” if momentum kicks in. Path C — Data/Auction Shock: Keep an eye out for any sharp moves around 8:30 or 13:00 that blast through key levels. In these scenarios, wait for a 5-minute re-test to see if it holds (which means the trend continues) or fails (pointing to a potential reversal). Don’t chase that initial spike; let the market prove it can stick at the level first. Stay sharp!