BTC/USD – Four Possible Price Scenarios Ahead I Oct/09/2025Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDTraderX68The BTC/USD market is currently in a sensitive phase as the price consolidates around the liquidity zone and sits just above a key Demand zone. The short-term structure remains bearish, but signs of dip-buying are emerging as price approaches the 121k area. Based on the 1H chart — combined with Volume Profile, Supply & Demand zones, and liquidity flow analysis — below are four possible price scenarios for the upcoming sessions, each with confirmation signals and actionable trading strategies: 🟩 Scenario 1 – Liquidity Sweep + Pullback to POC (Highest Probability ~45%) 🔹 Price Action: Price continues to sweep slightly below the Liquidity Zone (around 121,700 – 121,300) to grab buy-side liquidity. After the sweep, a long lower wick or bullish engulfing candle may appear — signaling recovery. Price bounces back toward the POC zone (123,100 – 123,300). Selling pressure then returns, causing a retest of the 122,000 area or lower. 🔹 Confirmation Signals: Strong volume spike at the liquidity low. Mild bullish divergence on RSI or OBV. Candle closes above 122,200. 🔹 Trade Setup: Short-term Buy: around 121,300 – 121,500 Take Profit: 123,100 – 123,300 Stop Loss: below 121,100 After reaching the PoC, consider flipping short if a clear rejection appears. 🟥 Scenario 2 – Breakdown of Demand → Continuation of Downtrend (~30%) 🔹 Price Action: Price loses the Demand zone (121,200 – 121,300) completely. A full-bodied H1 candle closes below 121,000 with strong volume. Sellers take control, pushing price lower toward 120,400 – 119,800 (4H support zone). 🔹 Confirmation Signals: No strong bullish reaction at Demand. Heavy selling volume (large red candles). Retests of 121,200 are rejected. 🔹 Trade Setup: Sell Breakout: when H1 closes below 121,000 TP1: 120,400 TP2: 119,800 SL: 121,600 🟦 Scenario 3 – Reclaim POC & Retest Supply Zone (~15%) 🔹 Price Action: Price bounces strongly from the Liquidity Zone and breaks above the POC at 123,300. Retests the POC zone as a new support. Continues rallying toward the Supply zone (123,900 – 124,200). Two possible outcomes: Strong rejection: price turns back down. Clean breakout: confirms short-term trend reversal. 🔹 Confirmation Signals: H1 candle closes firmly above 123,400. Volume increases consistently during the breakout. RSI breaks its previous high. 🔹 Trade Setup: Buy Breakout: above 123,400 TP: 124,200 – 124,500 SL: below 122,800 🟨 Scenario 4 – Sideways Range Between Liquidity & POC (~10%) 🔹 Price Action: Price consolidates between 121,800 – 123,200, unable to break either side. Volume gradually decreases as the market waits for a catalyst (e.g., CPI data, macro news). A mini balance range forms before the next breakout. 🔹 Confirmation Signals: Small-bodied candles with long wicks and declining volume. Market Profile tightens around 122,500. RSI hovers near the 50 level. 🔹 Trade Setup: Scalp Range Trading: Buy near 121,900 – 122,000 Sell near 123,200 – 123,300 Target small profits (80–120 USD range) 🔥 Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve significant risk; please do your own research and manage your capital responsibly.