Have Altcoins Hit a Cycle Top?Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC, ETH and Stablecoins, $CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3ESSnyperTAAltcoins have not hit a cycle top as of October 9, 2025. The data and market dynamics suggest altcoins are in a strong mid-cycle phase, with growing momentum and capital rotation from Bitcoin, but not yet at the euphoric distribution phase typical of a cycle peak. Here's why:Market Metrics: The total crypto market cap is $4.23T, with altcoins holding a $1.6T+ share, and the Altcoin Season Index at 55/100 (neutral, trending bullish). Bitcoin dominance is falling below 59%, signaling capital flowing into alts like ETH, SOL, and XRP. This mirrors early altseason patterns seen in 2021, not the broad sell-offs of cycle tops. Institutional and On-Chain Activity: Altcoin ETFs (e.g., ETH, potential XRP by Oct 25) are driving inflows, with ETH staking at 35M+ and DeFi TVL surging. Solana’s ecosystem is "unstoppable" per X sentiment, with 762% upside in select setups. Mid/small-caps like Aster (targeting $3.61 ATH) and Aptos (+24% weekly) show CMF inflows, not distribution. Whales are accumulating, not dumping. Historical Context: Cycle tops typically feature extreme retail FOMO, universal ETF outflows, and altcoin prices at unsustainable multiples (e.g., 2021’s DOGE/SHIB mania). Current altcoin rallies—BNB +17%, ZEC +165% weekly—are strong but not parabolic. Past cycles saw alts correct after BTC dominance dropped below 40%; we’re far from that. Risks and Outlook: Short-term volatility is possible due to resistances (e.g., ETH $4,680) and token unlocks (Celestia/Polkadot). However, Fed rate cuts (Oct 29) and a weakening USD favor risk-on assets like alts. X posts hype SOL, ETH, and presales (e.g., Pluffy), reflecting growing but not peak euphoria. ConclusionAltcoins are in a bullish rotation phase, not a cycle top. The setup—rising volumes, ETF inflows, and BTC-to-alt capital flow—points to further upside, potentially 100x for select projects in Q4 2025. A true top would require broader distribution (e.g., sustained ETF outflows, retail mania across all alts), which isn’t here yet. Watch for BTC dominance below 50% and sustained altcoin outperformance as stronger altseason confirmation.