Will gold break through the 4000 mark today?Gold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDGolden_Opportunities I. Core View The gold market currently maintains a strong bullish trend overall, with both fundamental and technical aspects favoring an upward bias. However, as prices are at historical highs and in overbought territory, high vigilance is needed against potential short-term technical corrections or pullbacks triggered by profit-taking. The primary trading approach should be buying on dips, but chasing the rally higher requires caution. II. Fundamental Analysis Supportive Factors: Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Market expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year are weighing on the US Dollar, providing key support for non-yielding gold. High Risk Aversion: Persistent US government shutdown risks, alongside escalating global trade and geopolitical tensions, enhance gold's safe-haven appeal and limit its downside. Potential Risks: Short-Term USD Strength: A continued rebound in the US Dollar could exert short-term pressure on gold, although its impact is expected to be limited due to a lack of firm bullish conviction. Fundamental Conclusion: The favorable fundamental backdrop makes any substantial decline in gold prices difficult to sustain. The path of least resistance remains to the upside. III. Technical Analysis Trend: The strong bullish structure remains intact, with prices continuously setting new all-time highs on the daily chart. Current Price: Slightly retreated after hitting a new all-time high of $3978/oz. Key Target Level: Upside Target: $4000/oz is a key psychological and technical barrier. Key Support Levels: First Support: $3940 - $3930/oz Second Support: $3900/oz Major Support: $3850/oz Risk Warning: Recalling last week's price action, a significant correction followed Monday's sharp rally. Be alert for a potential repeat of a similar "corrective sharp decline post-rally" today (Tuesday). If the price decisively breaks below the $3900/oz support, it could trigger a deeper correction towards the $3850/oz area. IV. Trading Strategy Suggestions Primary Strategy: Buy on Dips Look for potential long entry opportunities near the $3940-3930 support zone if price stabilizes there. Consider positioning for longs if the price retreats to near the $3900 level and finds support. Targets are towards $3980-3990 and ultimately the $4000 threshold. Secondary Strategy: Cautious Shorting on Resistance Aggressive traders might consider light short positions if price initially tests the $3980-3990 resistance area and shows clear rejection signs (e.g., a long upper wick), using a tight stop loss and targeting lower support levels. This strategy carries higher risk and is more suitable for short-term traders. Risk Control Essentials: Strict Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss orders for long positions below key support levels (e.g., below $3930 or $3900). Monitor Breakdowns: Closely watch the $3900 support. A decisive break below it warrants a strategy adjustment to avoid the risk of a deeper pullback.