BTC October MapBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDimacloneScope: Neutral, educational context for $BTC. Not advice or a signal. Context •Seasonality: October often prints green for BTC; context, not a forecast. •Policy/FX: Easing bias + softer USD supports risk; a USD spike or hawkish pivot is a headwind. •Flows/Structure: Spot ETF net inflows persist; realized vol lower than pre-ETF regime. •Positioning: Exchange balances sit below prior cycles; Q4 structure shows higher highs/lows. •Primary risks: Policy shocks, regulation, geopolitics, broad risk-off. Reference Levels (USD) •Stretch support: 80,000 •Major support: 100,000 •Invalidation guide: 111,000 (daily close below = trend risk) •Area of interest: 115,000–118,000 (reclaim + hold) •Trigger band: 117,000–119,000 •Targets to study: 119,000, 136,500, 143,000 Note that “Entry” = area to monitor, not a market order. “Invalidation” = close beyond the level on your timeframe. If/Then Map Continuation •If reclaim 117–119k -> hold on retest with stable volume -> map upside 136.5k -> 143k. Pullback •If reject 117–119k and lose 115–118k -> watch 100k. •If 100k fails -> path opens toward 80k stretch. Invalidation •If daily close < 111k -> uptrend thesis at risk until reclaimed. Method Notes •Confirmation-first: Reclaim then hold before assuming continuation. •Risk framing: Many cap single-idea risk at 1–3% to a hard stop. •Scale plan: 40% at T1 -> 40% at T2 -> 20% runner; move stop to breakeven after T1. •Global pause: Close below invalidation or sharp DXY spike -> reassess before new risk. What Changes This View •Macro: Clear hawkish shift or dollar surge. •Structure: Loss of 111k on a closing basis. •Flow: Sustained ETF outflows and liquidity deterioration. [i]Disclaimer: Informational only. No recommendations or guarantees. Verify data and follow platform rules, and please as always DYOR also.[/i]