Signal from DC on trade deal: Direct Modi-Trump ‘engagement’ may help

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An “engagement at the highest level” between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump could break the current deadlock and inject the momentum needed to push the long-drawn India-US trade talks over the finish line. This is one of the “fresh indications” New Delhi has received from Washington DC, a senior government official told The Indian Express.Setting the stage for such an engagement, however, is not easy, particularly given Trump’s flamboyant and unpredictable diplomatic style. Officials here are hoping that US Ambassador-designate Sergio Gor may play a role in “facilitating” this outreach.“President Trump and his office are probably looking at Prime Minister Modi meeting him before a deal is announced, but that’s not how the Indian system traditionally works,” the official said. “Ideally, the two leaders would talk only once the deal is done.”But there is a realisation that circumstances alter cases and this is a new Washington where Trump has upended long-held principles of protocol.Read | Malaysia sends word on Trump visit, Delhi looks at a meeting between PM and himDuring his recent visit to the US, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal led a delegation that met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and later Gor. Those meetings, sources said, helped advance the negotiations.There is now cautious optimism that the remaining differences could be bridged in the run-up to the ASEAN and East Asia leaders’ summit in Kuala Lumpur from October 26 to 28. If both Modi and Trump attend, it could open a window for a meeting on the sidelines. But the Prime Minister’s visit has not yet been confirmed. “It is still being discussed, and we cannot say what unfolds in the days ahead,” said an official. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar with Sergio Gor on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last month. (File Photo)The last seven months of negotiations have been marked by friction: from the 25% Russian penalty to sharp remarks by senior Trump administration officials about India’s trade barriers. Delhi, therefore, remains wary. “It’s out of the question for the Prime Minister to meet the US President before a deal is signed,” a senior official said, citing concerns about Trump’s penchant for conducting diplomacy in full public view, often catching interlocutors off-guard.Story continues below this adAdding to the complexity is the political calculus at home. “The political personality of Modi, and the Indian system itself, align to present him as a winner in domestic politics,” said a government functionary. “A meeting that doesn’t go well carries risks.”Read | India relationship critical, says US; talks on, both sides look at window for Modi-Trump meetingIncidentally, India was one of the first countries to initiate trade negotiations with the US back in February. More than seven months later, “some issues have complicated an early conclusion, but none is insurmountable,” said another official.Those sticking points include Trump’s repeated assertions that he ended the India-Pakistan conflict during “Op Sindoor” — a claim New Delhi firmly denies; India’s purchase of Russian oil, which Washington frames as funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine; and India’s reluctance to open its markets to US agricultural products.New Delhi, though, has signalled flexibility on some fronts. After his recent meeting with the USTR in New York, Goyal said India expected to expand energy trade with the US in the coming years. “Being close friends, natural partners, our energy security goals will have a very high element of US involvement,” he said, adding that India also planned to deepen cooperation in nuclear energy, particularly on small modular reactors being developed in the US.Story continues below this adRead | ‘Very good friend Modi’: Trump signals thaw in ties, says trade talks with India ‘on track’On the Russian oil issue, Delhi initially bristled at what it saw as an infringement of sovereignty. Over time, however, India diversified its oil purchases, a shift Washington has acknowledged.Interestingly, amid the post-Sindoor chill between Trump and Modi, the tone appears to have warmed of late. Beginning with exchanges in early September and his 75th birthday on September 17 when Trump greeted him the previous day, Modi has publicly praised Trump’s leadership and welcomed several of his comments, including his proposals for a Gaza peace plan. Responding to Trump’s birthday greetings, Modi had posted on X: “…We support your initiatives towards a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict.”Those who have worked closely with Trump describe him as not one for ambivalence.“He means exactly what he says,” said a senior US official. “When he says he’s upset about India’s tariffs or its oil deals with Russia, he means it. And when he says he likes Prime Minister Modi and calls him his good friend, he means that too. Both can be true.”Story continues below this adThat, the official added, reflects “a very American distinction, the professional and the personal are separate. Different cultures make it difficult for Delhi to fully grasp that.”