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Skip to navigationSkip to main content':"";if(a){var r=n.promos.showYahooLogo?"":"yns-no-logo";a=a.replace("{notifOnboardBtnLabel}",n.promos.notifOnboardBtnLabel).replace("{notifOnboardMsg}",n.promos.notifOnboardMsg).replace("{subscriptionTopic}",n.promos.subscriptionTopic).replace("{noLogoClass}",r).replace("{promoLogo}",n.promos.promoLogo)}var s=t.newCount>n.panel.maxCount?t.newCount:"",c=n.panel.notificationCenterPath,l=c?"":R,u=n.panel.headerMsg?"":" "+R,d=c?H:"",p=void 0;t.count?p=t.markup:p='{emptyPanelMsg}'.replace("{emptyPanelMsg}",n.panel.emptyPanelMsg);return e=e.replace("{notifMarkup}",p).replace("{promoMarkup}",a).replace("{hideClass}",l).replace("{notifCenterLink}",c).replace("{paddingClass}",d).replace("{headerMsg}",n.panel.headerMsg).replace("{hideHeaderClass}",u).replace(/{notificationCenterNavMsg}/g,n.panel.notificationCenterNavMsg).replace(/{newCount}/g,s)}},{key:"render",value:function(e,t){var n=this;if(n._panelNode){var o=void 0,i=n._panelNode,a=void 0,r=void 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See our Advertiser Disclosure.Hal Bundrick, CFP® · Senior Writer, MortgagesUpdated Mon, October 6, 2025 at 6:23 PM GMT+2 5 min readWith 30-year fixed home loan rates remaining over 6% for three years now, 5% home loan rates are a faint memory. Most housing experts do not expect mortgage rates to decline significantly further through the end of this year, and any decreases in 2026 are expected to be gradual. However, a major economic setback could change that.This embedded content is not available in your region.Read more: The best mortgage lenders for first-time home buyersWhat would trigger lower mortgage rates? Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said it's a matter of time."The most likely catalyst is time. As time goes by, as you get closer to that 2% inflation anchor that the Fed is targeting, it would normalize the (federal funds rate) and it would normalize longer-term interest rates," Hale told Yahoo Finance. "The federal rate would probably get back into the 2-1/2% range or so, which is probably enough to bring long-term yields back around 4%, and that would probably put mortgage rates in the 5-1/2 to 6% range."She noted that Federal Reserve rate cuts and lower mortgage rates are not a one-for-one proposition. Hale said that from last September through January, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by a percentage point, and mortgage rates rose by almost the same amount.The Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point interest rate cut on Sept. 17, and once again, 10-year Treasury yields moved higher. As a proxy for mortgage rates, that could signal a bump in mortgage rates, at least in the short term.Learn more: How the Fed rate decision impacts mortgage rates"You could get [to 5% mortgage rates] faster if you were to have a recession," Hale added. "That could cause the Fed to cut rates, and you could see 5 1/2% — maybe even slightly below 5 1/2%, in a really bad recession."Even though the latest GDP report indicated that the U.S. is not in a recession, the most recent employment data was worrisome.Realtor.com research conducted in the first quarter of 2025 found that roughly three in 10 (29.8%) of potential home buyers surveyed said a recession would make them at least "somewhat more likely" to buy a home."It seems that some shoppers are anticipating either lower mortgage rates or lower home prices, or both, in a recession to potentially create some sort of opportunity for them to buy," Hale said.Of course, a recession could bring many complications into the affordability equation: job and income insecurity are among the most likely.Dive deeper: Do mortgage rates decrease in a recession?Up NextHow will the government shutdown impact mortgage rates? Experts weigh in.Why didn't mortgage rates fall after the Federal Reserve rate cut?Is now a good time to buy a house?If mortgage rates fall into the 5% range, Hale believed it would bring buyers and sellers back into the market. But would a resurging market introduce more competition for buyers?Hale said that while home buyers are looking for lower mortgage rates, home sellers are too. Listings may increase as sellers see an opportunity to move into their next house at a reasonable interest rate."When rates drop, normally that would increase competitiveness in the market because it creates opportunities for home buyers. But I think, interestingly, this will also create some opportunities for home sellers, so we might not see competitiveness pick up quite as much."Read more: You locked in a low mortgage rate — now you want to move. What should you do?This embedded content is not available in your region.The window for lower mortgage rates may open quickly — and perhaps close just as fast. As a borrower and home buyer, you'll want to be prepared.Have your down payment in the bank. When an opportunity to buy presents itself, you'll have the funds ready to take action. Have enough for closing costs too.Check your credit score and get your personal finances in shape.Nail down your home price range and target monthly payment. Knowing how much house you can afford and narrowing down the appropriate neighborhoods can set you up for early success when the time is right.Explore a prequalification. Talk to a few mortgage lenders and have your home loan options lined up. You can have the lenders in your pocket for when it's time for an official loan preapproval.Learn more: Mortgage rate projections for the next five yearsIt's not a common prediction among industry observers, but one expert believes so. Chris Whalen, an investment banker in New York, told Yahoo Finance in a phone interview that 5% is likely the next move for mortgage rates. "If you really wanted to put me on the spot [and ask me] 'how low do you think mortgage rates will go in the next cycle?' I'd say 5%."It’s unlikely that mortgage rates will fall to 4% anytime soon. Unusually low mortgage rates became possible only after the 2008 housing crisis and the ensuing recession. Then, the COVID pandemic further suppressed them. It was a rare set of circumstances that pushed mortgage rates to historic lows. It would likely take equally uncommon events to cause such low rates to happen again.The average 30-year mortgage interest rate dipped into the lower 5% range for about six weeks in the summer of 2003. Then again, briefly in March 2004. A longer stretch of mortgage rates near and well below 5% began during the housing crisis and recession of 2008 and lasted 14 years, ending in October 2022.Probably not, on the Fed's current schedule. It would likely take an economic reversal, spurring extraordinary federal funds rate cuts, to get mortgage loan rates close to 5%.Buy a home when you can afford to. A mortgage rate is not a lifetime commitment. It's likely you'll own more than one house, and even if you buy at a higher rate now, you can always refinance your mortgage when rates come down.