Gold's Trend Outlook After Historic Breakthrough of $4,000Gold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDgold_lizGold's Trend Outlook After Historic Breakthrough of $4,000 I. Milestone Market Review On October 8th, during the Asian and European trading sessions, spot gold prices achieved a historic breakthrough, surpassing the $4,000/ounce mark for the first time. The intraday high reached $4,036.98, and at press time, it was trading around $4,032. The futures market also strengthened, with December gold futures in New York reaching a new high of $4,059.3. So far this year, gold prices have risen 53%, continuing to lead global assets after a 27% increase in 2024. II. In-depth Analysis of Multiple Driving Factors 1. Monetary Policy Expectations Dominate the Market Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut continue to strengthen, with futures markets indicating traders are betting on a 25 basis point rate cut this month with an over 80% probability, followed by another in December. The US government shutdown entered its seventh day, and the release of key economic data has stalled, exacerbating market expectations of a policy shift. 2. Geopolitical Risks Continue to Fester International events such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the stalemate in the war in Ukraine continue to intensify safe-haven demand. Global political uncertainty is driving large-scale capital flows toward safe-haven assets such as gold. 3. Structural Demand Provides Long-Term Support The de-dollarization of global central bank foreign exchange reserves is accelerating. Physical gold ETFs are seeing substantial inflows. Top investment banks have continuously raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs raising its December 2026 target price from $4,300 to $4,900. III. Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies Current Trend Positioning Gold has established a strong bullish pattern. After breaking through the key psychological level of $4,000, the technical outlook suggests an accelerating upward trend. Key Price Analysis Resistance: $4060-4070 (short-term target area) Support: $4020-4010 (initial support), $3980-3975 (key support) Trading Strategy Recommendations Key Concept: Follow the trend and focus on buying on pullbacks Entry Timing: Advanced traders may consider entering long positions after the price stabilizes in the $4020-4010 support area. Conservative traders may wait for a pullback to the key support area of $3980-3975 to enter positions in batches. Risk Control: If the price falls below the $3980 support area, be wary of a deep pullback to the $3945 area. Set a strict stop-loss order to control the risk of each trade. IV. Market Outlook and Risk Warnings Although short-term technical indicators suggest overbought conditions and a technical pullback is possible, the core factors driving gold's long-term bull market remain solid: Global debt continues to expand The US dollar credit system faces challenges The trend of diversification of reserve assets deepens Any technical pullback may provide investors with new entry opportunities. Market analysts pointed out that in the current macro environment, $5,000 has become the next key target worthy of attention.