S&P 500 (US500) Multi-Timeframe StrategyUS 500 IndexPEPPERSTONE:US500sunyaS&P 500 (US500) Technical Analysis | October 11, 2025 UTC+4 Multi-Timeframe Strategy Closing Price: 6,508.2 | Market Context: Trading at all-time highs with institutional accumulation evident Market Structure Analysis The S&P 500 demonstrates robust bullish momentum, having broken through the critical 6,500 psychological barrier. Daily chart reveals a mature impulse wave in Elliott Wave terminology (Wave 5 extension), supported by expanding volume profiles. Wyckoff analysis indicates we're in a Phase E markup following successful re-accumulation between 5,800-6,200. The Ichimoku cloud on 4H timeframe shows price trading above all components (bullish alignment), with Tenkan-sen (9-period) at 6,485 providing dynamic support. Gann analysis using the Square of 9 identifies 6,528 as the next natural resistance level, with time-price squaring suggesting October 15-17 as a potential pivot zone. Technical Indicators Confluence RSI (14): Daily = 68 (approaching overbought but not extreme), 4H = 71 (caution zone). Bollinger Bands: Price riding the upper band on 4H (expansion phase), suggesting continuation with potential volatility. VWAP Analysis: Anchored from October 1st shows strong positioning above 6,465; volume profile indicates acceptance above 6,480 with 82% bullish volume dominance. Moving Averages: Golden cross intact (50 EMA > 200 EMA by 340 points), 21 EMA at 6,470 acting as immediate support. Harmonic pattern detection reveals a potential Butterfly completion near 6,550-6,580 zone (1.272-1.618 Fibonacci extension). Critical Levels & Pattern Recognition Support Structure: 6,485 (Tenkan-sen + 4H demand), 6,465 (VWAP anchor), 6,440 (daily pivot + Gann 45° angle), 6,400 (psychological + Wyckoff spring test). Resistance Zones: 6,528 (Gann Square of 9), 6,550-6,580 (Butterfly PRZ + 1.618 extension), 6,620 (weekly resistance). Pattern Alert: Watch for potential bull trap formation if price spikes above 6,580 on declining volume—this would signal exhaustion. Current candlestick structure shows consistent higher highs/higher lows with no reversal patterns (no shooting stars or bearish engulfing yet). Intraday Trading Strategy (5M-4H Charts) BUY ZONES: Primary entry: 6,485-6,495 (confluence of Ichimoku + VWAP support) | Stop Loss: 6,465 (risk 20-30 points) | Targets: T1: 6,520 (quick scalp, 25 points), T2: 6,545 (risk-reward 1:2), T3: 6,575 (swing extension). Secondary Entry: Aggressive long on breakout above 6,528 with volume confirmation (minimum 20% above 20-period average) | Stop: 6,510 | Target: 6,565-6,580. SELL/SHORT ZONES: Counter-trend short only if rejection at 6,580 with bearish divergence on RSI + shooting star formation | Entry: 6,575-6,585 | Stop: 6,595 | Target: 6,520, 6,485. Intraday Bias: 75% bullish until broken below 6,465. Swing Trading Strategy (Daily-Weekly) Position Building: Accumulate on pullbacks to 6,440-6,465 zone (25-35% position) with 4-6 day holding period | Full position stop: 6,390 (swing low violation). Profit Targets: Conservative: 6,580 (exit 50%), Aggressive: 6,650-6,720 (monthly target based on Elliott Wave projection and Gann time cycles suggesting completion by October 28-31). Risk Management: Trail stops below each daily higher low; current trail at 6,465. If price closes below 21 EMA on daily (6,470), reduce exposure by 60%. Wave Count: Currently in Wave 5 of (5) of larger degree—expect final parabolic move but prepare for 8-12% correction when complete (target retracement to 5,950-6,050 zone). Market Context & Catalyst Watch Geopolitical landscape shows stabilization in Middle East tensions, supporting risk-on sentiment. Fed policy remains neutral (hold position), but monitor October 17th retail sales data and October 23rd PMI releases—strong data could push us to 6,650; weak data triggers profit-taking. VIX at 13.2 (complacency zone) suggests low fear but increases gap-risk. Volume analysis critical: Declining volume on new highs would confirm distribution (Wyckoff Phase E to Phase A transition)—watch for volume 25% below 20-day average as warning signal. Institutional flow data shows continued net buying but decelerating pace. Execution Playbook Monday-Tuesday: Expect consolidation 6,485-6,520; ideal for range scalping. Wednesday-Thursday: Gann time window suggests volatility expansion; breakout likely. Friday: Monthly options expiry could create pinning effect near 6,500. Best trades: Long on dips to 6,485-6,495 with tight stops OR breakout long above 6,528 on volume. Avoid: Chasing above 6,550 without pullback; shorting below 6,580 without clear reversal confirmation. Risk no more than 0.5-1% account per intraday trade, 2% for swing positions. This market rewards patience at support and aggression at breakouts—trade the plan, not emotions.