On India’s GDP growth trajectory, compared to Pakistan, China and the US

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Written by Udit MisraNew Delhi | October 10, 2025 07:00 AM IST 3 min readExternal Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar speaks during the 4th edition of Kautilya Economic Conclave, in New Delhi on Sunday. (ANI Photo/Sumit)Even though a state of relative calm now prevails in US-India relations, the recent disruptions on the trade front, as well as the United States’ apparent proximity to Pakistan, led many analysts to conclude that India and Pakistan are again being hyphenated on the international stage.Hyphenation is the practice of a country conducting relations with another by factoring in a third country. In this case, rather than dealing with India based on its own standing (called “de-hyphenation”), the US would see it through the prism of its own friendly ties with Pakistan.In this context, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar recently said, “The best way of de-hyphenation is to outstrip the other party in terms of power and capability.” While military power is a key metric that defines a country’s capability, often the most dependable long-term marker is a country’s economic strength or output.However, the question isn’t just where India stands, but also what India’s growth trajectory is relative to countries such as Pakistan, as well as China and the US.The CHART alongside tries to provide a glimpse of why India is truly an ascendant regional power. Even though India’s growth momentum has lost a step over the past decade, when compared to others, a very different picture emerges. The four lines here map the ratio of GDP (in current US dollars) between India and the other three countries. The vertical axis shows the number of times one economy is of another. CHART.Here are the main takeaways:1. The US’s economic momentum has been rather spectacular. The bigger an economy, the harder it is for it to maintain a fast growth momentum. Yet, as the lines mapping the US vs China and the US vs India trends show, the US economy has restricted its slide over the past decade.Story continues below this adIn fact, against China, it has improved post-Covid. These comparisons are in US dollar terms and, as such, account for changes in exchange rates. Still, relative to India, the US has lost ground over the past decade: from being 8.6 times India’s economy in 2014 to 7.5 times in 2024.Last week's GDP column | On declining inflation, improving consumer confidence2. India, on the other hand, has kept pace with China’s growth and hasn’t allowed China to increase the gap in relative terms. If anything, the relative ratio has come down: China’s GDP was 5.4 times India’s in 2015 but only 4.8 times in 2024.3. Against Pakistan, India’s economy has now extended the gap, helped by Pakistan’s persistent economic mismanagement. Be that as it may, just over the past decade, India’s economic size relative to Pakistan has gone from 7.5 times to 10.5 times.Clearly, among these four economies, it is India and the US that show an upward trajectory, while China and Pakistan seem to be running out of steam at varying levels.Udit Misra is Senior Associate Editor. Follow him on Twitter @ieuditmisra ... Read More© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd