With just hours to go for the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, one question looms large — will US President Donald Trump take it home?Trump, who has repeatedly claimed credit for halting seven “unending wars,” has openly expressed his belief that he deserves the award.However, the President himself is not confident on winning. When asked this summer whether the date of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement was on his mind, Trump dodged the question.“I can’t say. I mean, a lot of people say no matter what I did — because, you know, I’m of a certain persuasion — no matter what I do, they won’t give it up,” the POTUS said, as reported by The New York Times.“I’m not politicking for it,” he added. “I have a lot of people that are.”Why Trump’s chances seem leanOn Friday, October 10, the Nobel Committee based in Norway will announce the winner of the prize in Norway capital Oslo.Will Trump make it after brokering the deal between Israel and Hamas — one of the nine conflicts he claims to have solved?Story continues below this adThe Nobel committee said on Thursday that the decision on who would be named the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate was made on Monday, two days before the US President got Israel and Hamas to agree to a ceasefire as part of his Gaza peace plan.According to this timeline and the five-member committee that decides the winner, Trump is unlikely to win the prize. The situation has also sparked concern in Norway over how he might react to being overlooked so publicly.Kirsti Bergstø, leader of Norway’s Socialist Left Party and its foreign policy spokesperson, said Oslo must be “prepared for anything,” The Guardian reported.“Donald Trump is taking the US in an extreme direction, attacking freedom of speech, having masked secret police kidnapping people in broad daylight, and cracking down on institutions and the courts. When the president is this volatile and authoritarian, of course we have to be prepared for anything,” Bergstø told The Guardian.Story continues below this ad“The Nobel Committee is an independent body, and the Norwegian government has no involvement in determining the prizes. But I’m not sure Trump knows that. We have to be prepared for anything from him,” Bergstø added.The US president has been campaigning for the award for quite some time now. He has even been critical of one of his predecessors, Barack Obama, who won it in 2009 “for extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples”. Trump said Obama won the prize for “doing nothing”.In July, The Guardian reported that the POTUS had called Norway’s finance minister and former NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg to ask about the Nobel Prize. In a UN meeting last month, Trump again claimed credit for “ending seven wars,” telling world leaders: “Everyone says I should get the Nobel Peace Prize.”While Oslo is bracing for any reaction, Arild Hermstad, leader of Norway’s Green Party, said the Nobel Committee’s independence is what gives the prize its credibility.Story continues below this ad“Peace prizes are earned through sustained commitment — not through social media tantrums or intimidation,” he told The Guardian.“It’s good that Trump supported the recent ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Any step toward ending the suffering in Gaza is welcome. But one late contribution does not erase years of enabling violence and division.”Trump might also not be a contender this year because the prize typically rewards achievements from the previous year. By this time last year, Trump had been elected but not yet sworn in as president.Another reason Trump may not win the Nobel Peace Prize lies in the principles guiding the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decisions.Story continues below this adThe five-member committee bases its choices on the 1895 will of Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel.Nina Graeger, head of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, said that several of Trump’s actions — including withdrawing the US from the World Health Organisation and the 2015 Paris climate accord, as well as launching trade disputes with allies — run contrary to the ideals outlined in Nobel’s will.“If you look at Alfred Nobel’s will, it emphasises three areas,” Graeger explained. “One is achievements in promoting peace, such as brokering a peace deal. The second is advancing disarmament, and the third is strengthening international cooperation.”Asle Sveen, a historian of the Nobel Peace Prize, also pointed to Trump’s efforts to improve ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a controversial move.Story continues below this ad“His admiration for dictators counts against him,” Sveen said. “That goes against the spirit of Alfred Nobel’s will.”The director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, Kristian Berg Harpviken, reiterated that the committee is independent and that the decision was made days before Trump’s peace plan.Harpviken told The Guardian that the decisions were apolitical, though the members of the committee are appointed by the Norwegian Parliament in accordance with the will of Alfred Nobel.“I know first-hand the committee acts completely independently. But Alfred Nobel made it somewhat difficult for us by writing in his will that it must be appointed by the parliament. That, unfortunately, is non-negotiable,” he said.Story continues below this adIsrael, Pakistan, and Trump’s plea for the prizeAfter Israel and Hamas agreed to Trump’s Gaza plan, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted an AI-generated photo of himself awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Trump on his official social media account.“Give Donald Trump the Nobel Peace Prize — he deserves it,” Netanyahu wrote on X.At least seven countries — including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Gabon, Israel, Pakistan, and Rwanda — have nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in ending various conflicts.Trump himself has suggested that he deserves the prize for ending wars across the world. But when asked by reporters if he thinks he will win, he said, “Absolutely not. They’ll give it to some guy that didn’t do a damn thing.Story continues below this ad“They’ll give it to a guy that wrote a book about the mind of Donald Trump and what it took to solve the wars,” he added, calling it a “big insult” if the award were denied.Although France has not nominated Trump for the award, last month, French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that if the US President really wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize, he should stop the war in Gaza.Former US First Lady Hillary Clinton also said that she would nominate President Trump for the Peace Prize if he could secure a lasting end to the war in Ukraine.Graeger noted that the committee has not shied away from controversial decisions.“The more holistic picture will depend on what the committee wants to emphasize when they look at the candidates,” she said. “A candidate doesn’t have to be perfect,” she told The New York Times.(With inputs from Reuters)