EURUSD Paints Itself Into a CornerEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDAlchemyMarketsEURUSD’s 5.5-month rally has stalled into a 2-month wedge consolidation - price has essentially painted itself into a corner. With ATR at a 6-month low, volatility has compressed stalling further gains. The consolidation has been brief compared to the sustained H1 2025 rally. COT positioning reinforces the risk as speculators are the most net-long (red and blue lines - bottom of chart) since January 2024 while commercials are net-short (green line). This disparity hints the bullish EURUSD trade is a overcrowded and may need more time to correct. The market has to step on wet paint to get out of this corner. Which way will it go? Watch the trend lines. A daily close under the wedge support trend line would expose horizontal Fibonacci support: 23.6% near 1.1440, then 38.2% at ~1.1200. If selling accelerates, watch the 61.8% retrace around 1.0810. Until price clears 1.1830, rallies are suspect. If bulls do force a clean breakout, the purple up-trend line can act as a marker for bullish sentiment; holding above it keeps the advance intact, but a decisive close back below that trend line after a breakout would signal sentiment is turning and puts downside risk right back on the table.