SPX – Fed Model vs Liquidity: Hawkish Hold Meets Negative FlowS&P 500 IndexCBOE_DLY:SPXTheRealMongooseThe S&P 500 holds near 6,435, but the backdrop is shifting. Fed tone, liquidity, and sentiment are no longer aligned, leaving SPX caught between support and resistance. 1. Fed Model (AFDFM) Index = –2.78 → weak hawkish bias. Policy regime = easing, but signal shows a falling trend. Probabilities: Hold = 60%, Cut = 40%, Hike = 0%. Inflation easing (Core PCE 0.34%), unemployment stable (4.2%), but Fed Funds still elevated at 4.33%. Policy remains restrictive compared to the Taylor Rule (~1.8%). 2. Liquidity (BML) Net liquidity variation = –2.14% → negative. TGA high + RRP large = drain on market cash. Until liquidity turns up, upside momentum in equities stays capped. 3. Macro Risk Sentiment Risk On/Off index slipped back below 0 (–0.45). Summer highs near +1.5 showed strong appetite, but enthusiasm is fading. Without liquidity improvement, sentiment is unlikely to push higher. 4. SPX Levels Support: 6,350 → a break below risks 6,200. Resistance: 6,500–6,550 → needs liquidity improvement to sustain. Conclusion: Fed tone = dovish to neutral, but liquidity = negative. That divergence is why SPX is stuck near the highs. A liquidity flip (TGA drawdown, RRP decline) is the trigger for the next breakout. Until then, expect range trading between 6,350 and 6,500. Disclaimer: This is educational analysis, not financial advice.