Bitcoin - April 2026Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDwithout_worriesThe market is in full panic mode. Why sell at $126k when you can sell $66k? You might think sarcasm but on-chain data suggests many sellers today are selling at a loss. That is the market mindset, buy high sell low backed by facts on Glassnode. Perhaps sellers are not at fault as Influencers prepare their audiences for a “mega crash”. Many influencers now sing the same hymn, as if it were a foretold scripture. The problem with that is charts are not deterministic. They never have been. So what all the hullabaloo? The bear flag This is easily the most talked about chart in social circles at the moment. Very few folks will look at this chart and see anything else but a certain collapse to $40k area as forecast by the flag. A confirmation is a candle body outside the flag as shown by the green arrow with a 2nd candle body print. 3 day chart In summary: You do not want to see the 2nd bear flag follow through. It’ll mark the start of a macro process lasting multiple years. Multiple years? A 5 wave correction? If the flag confirms, a 5 wave corrective structure will print, which is in the long term not good. It will mean: 1. This current structure is impulsive, not corrective. Look left at previous post market top corrections. 2. This correction will be Wave 1 of a new Macro downtrend. Consider this: 1. Previous market top corrections to the bottom took over 400 days. Circa 420 days to be exact. 2. The current correction is 167 days old and we’re talking imminent mega crash to the market bottom. This time is indeed different. 3. The rate of correction is overlooked. The rate of this correction is flashing red alarm bells when compared to previous bear markets. A correction of this rate allows us to infer a great many things about the future, 2026 will be the last year Bitcoin prints a positive return as going concern. Over the next 10 years, Bitcoin bulls will only see Macro Bear market rallies, there’s growing chart evidence for that. At the end of the day Bitcoin is a 16 year old technology that no one really uses. Miners have already recognised that as they turn compute power towards more lucrative AI data centres. It’s the young influencers I pity, they’re out there convinced Bitcoin is the future, using skills to create content I could not touch whilst talking about a redundant technology. Like flogging a tape cassette on a podcast. The first 7 month correction period? If the months of April become a “Mega Crash” as social media advertises then it’ll be the first print in Bitcoin’s history for seven consecutive red months. Indeed, many influencers forecast the correction is to continue until the month of October. That would extend the current red month count to potentially 13 months of correction. Is that realistic? What are the facts? Look left. 5 to 6 of continuousness red months saw an equal amount of following green months. That’s not my opinion, that’s a fact. While we’re replacing hyperbole with facts, let’s have another chart fact.. after 6 red months of red (as we’re about to print), Bitcoin returned a minimum of 60% in the following 3 months. That’s quite a contradiction to the current popular narrative. Questions 1 and 2 - Trend / Support & resistance Question 1) What is the trend? Up or down? Question 2) Support or resistance, which is it? Those are very simple questions everyone should master. I don’t mean “get good”, I mean really master. Start on a high timeframe, work your way in. Question 1 is clearly a negative answer, the uptrend as shown on this 6 day chart has now become an undeniable downtrend. Question 2 is also negative with the first break in market structure / support around $85k. The 2nd break at $70k Summary: You can never open long exposure while Questions 1 and 2 are negative. Not until the last lower high resistance is broken. $70k at this time. 1 and 2 month charts - Who is paying attention? Questions 1 and 2 will keep being negative until they are not. Obviously. Still, that’ll not stop folks betting against the tide. That said a time will come when both questions return a positive status. Clues to when that status changes comes from the higher time frames, not the 4hr chart forecasting the next 6 months. The 2 month chart below prints a new candle on April 1st. The monthly chart What do you notice? What you’re looking at is past resistance. At least 2 years worth of resistance tests. Is price action now going to ignore this effort to break resistance with a correction to $40k? Of course not. Any collapse of price action to lower lows below $60k will likely print a wick rather than a slow downward grind until October. The influencers are seemingly ignoring this powerful setup. Perhaps it’s bad for clicks? Gold Vs Bitcoin ratio Ignore this signal at your peril. As every influencer pumps out the bearish narrative the Gold Bitcoin ratio is flashing a signal not seen since Bitcoin was trading at $9k and $20k, respectively. That signal is a bearish divergence. A reliable divergence. Bitcoin price shot up 700% on the last two prints! Not saying that’s about to repeat, but that’ll take price action to $500k a token. 2 week chart Conclusions Right, let’s cut through the noise. Everyone’s screaming “mega crash” like it’s the season finale of a bad Netflix series. Same thumbnails, same faces, same dramatic arrows pointing down as if gravity was just invented. And yet, oddly, markets don’t care about your YouTube script. Yes, the trend is down, that’s not controversial. Lower highs, broken structure, momentum rolling over… congratulations, you’ve discovered what a downtrend looks like. But here’s the bit people conveniently ignore: context. You’ve got a market correcting faster than it historically ever has, while simultaneously sitting on multi-year resistance that was recently broken. That’s not a setup for a polite, orderly collapse into oblivion. That’s a pressure cooker. The obsession with the bear flag is borderline religious at this point. If it confirms, fine, expect continuation maybe even a prolonged process. But the certainty people attach to it? That’s where it gets silly. Charts don’t “guarantee” anything. If they did, we’d all be retired. Then there’s the “13 months of red” fantasy. Really? The same asset that historically snaps back violently after extended downside is suddenly going to behave like a dying penny stock? That’s not analysis, that’s storytelling. And enjoyable storytelling at that. Meanwhile, higher timeframes are quietly doing their job. Resistance turned support doesn’t just vanish because someone drew a scary arrow on a 4-hour chart. If price nukes below $60k, odds favour a wick, not a slow-motion funeral procession into October. And the real kicker? While the crowd’s busy panicking, the Gold vs Bitcoin ratio is flashing signals that historically precede massive upside. Not small moves. Not “nice bounce”. Proper, face-melting rallies. So where does that leave us? Short term: Downtrend. Respect it. Mid term: Compression, not collapse. Long term: Still very much undecided, and far more bullish than the hysteria suggests. In other words: Yes, things look bad. No, it’s not the apocalypse. And if you’re selling after a 50% drop because someone with a ring light told you to… well, that’s not a market problem. Ww ========================================== Disclaimer This isn’t financial advice. It’s an interpretation of market structure, historical behaviour, and a mild frustration with collective hysteria. Markets are probabilistic, not deterministic. Patterns fail. Signals misfire. Narratives flip overnight. If you’re looking for certainty, you’re in the wrong game. You are responsible for your own decisions, risk management, and emotional discipline. If a tweet, a thumbnail, or even this post is enough to make you buy or sell, you’re not trading, you’re reacting. Do your own analysis. Challenge assumptions. Especially mine.