War shocks have increased risks to economy and inflationHe can see scenarios of both hiking and cutting ratesMon pol currently at the low end of neutral (I think he means top of neutral range)Supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in current environmentTariffs are still inflation driver but should waneSays he's cautious about looking through energy shockBaseline case is good growth, moderating inflation and stable employmentSees unfavorable risks for employment and inflationDoesn't see stress from private creditThese comments are very much in-line with the consensus right now. The market is trying to figure out what will happen with the war but futures are pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a rate cut. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.