FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar remainssupported across the board amid the US-Iran war and triple digit oil prices. Weare having a pullback today after WSJ reported that Trump would be open toend the war without pushing for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That wouldbe great news for the markets as the Iranians will likely reopen the Strait assoon as the US forces withdraw.We will need Trump toannounce that though as the only thing we got till now were speculations andempty words aimed at jawboning the markets. Trump is certainly very uneasyright now with the stock market making new lows, much higher Treasury yields,triple digit oil prices and the Fed in a "wait and see" mode.The path of leastresistance for the dollar remains to the upside but traders will keep awatchful eye on the headlines and especially on Trump’s Truth Social account,as we are always one post away from huge market moves. Traders are not pricing inany change to interest rates this year as we have just 3 bps of easing expectedby year-end.EUR:On the EUR side, the recentdata showed what everyone expected to happen to the economy, that is higher headlineinflation and weaker economic activity. The ECB continues to stress vigilanceand maintain a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach. ECB policymakersare keeping a tightening bias conditional to the length of the conflict. The market is pricing in a58% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting with an 87% probability of amove in June. The total tightening expected by year-end is currently seeingroughly three rate hikes. The ECB will likely lookthrough the inflation spike at the April meeting but lay the groundwork for arate hike in June if the US-Iran conflict were to persist. These expectationswill get repriced quickly though if the war were to end in the next couple ofweeks. EURUSD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that EURUSD eventually rejected the trendlineand fell below the 1.15 handle again. The natural target is the 1.1392 levelwhere we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the levelto position for a rally back into the 1.16 handle. The sellers, on the other hand,will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. EURUSD TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we havea downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likelycontinue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushinginto new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to pile in for a pullbackinto the major trendline around the 1.1550 level.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will lookfor a rejection around the trendline, while the buyers will look for a break. Thered lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the US Consumer Confidence and US Job Openings data. Tomorrow,we have the US ADP, the US Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. OnThursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we concludethe week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.