Fundamental Market Analysis for April 1, 2026 GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarSAXO:GBPUSDFresh-Forexcast2004GBP/USD is holding around 1.32400–1.32500, but the pound remains vulnerable: for the UK, rising energy prices and supply disruptions are a blow to import costs and inflation, while investors assess fiscal resilience amid higher borrowing costs. The Bank of England rate outlook remains tense: some participants expect a tougher response to inflation, yet economists’ surveys point to a high probability of keeping the rate unchanged. This uncertainty reduces the pound’s appeal, especially if incoming business activity and consumer data continue to show cooling. From the US side, the key focus this week is the jobs report: strong figures would support the dollar through expectations of higher rates, while weak data would temporarily weaken it. Against the backdrop of geopolitical risks and expensive energy, today’s base case favors the dollar, so downside potential in GBP/USD looks more pronounced. This keeps demand for the dollar in place. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.32500, SL 1.32750, TP 1.31550