Gold rises as risk increases.GoldOANDA:XAUUSDMarcus_SMCGold continues to build on its recovery, with price now pushing into higher levels after holding firmly above the recent base. The move comes as global risk sentiment deteriorates, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran. With markets facing volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies, capital is rotating into defensive assets — and gold is responding accordingly. Market context The ongoing US–Iran conflict is creating a broad shock across financial markets. Rising energy prices, slowing growth expectations, and increasing stagflation risk are all contributing to a more defensive positioning environment. This backdrop supports gold structurally. While other assets remain under pressure, gold is attracting demand as a hedge against both geopolitical risk and macro instability. Technical overview On the H2 structure, gold has already completed a sell-side liquidity sweep around 4,350, followed by a strong recovery. Price is now forming higher lows and pushing into key imbalance zones above. The 4,630–4,640 buy zone has held well, acting as a stable base for the current move. From this level, price has started to expand upward with more controlled momentum. Gold is now trading around 4,680–4,700, approaching a key FVG zone and descending trendline resistance. The way price reacts here will determine the strength of continuation. Above this area, the next targets sit at 4,800, followed by the higher timeframe order block around 5,100–5,200. Key levels Support / base: 4,630 – 4,640 Trendline test zone: ~4,700 Next resistance (FVG): ~4,800 Major resistance (OB): 5,100 – 5,200 Sell-side liquidity (low): ~4,350 Market scenarios Primary scenario – continuation higher (favored) As long as price holds above 4,630, the structure remains constructive. A break through 4,700 opens the path toward 4,800 and potentially higher. Secondary scenario – pullback and continuation Price may retest the 4,630–4,650 zone to build liquidity before continuing upward. This would keep the bullish structure intact. Invalidation scenario – structure weakens A move back below 4,600 would weaken the recovery and delay the upside continuation. Notes The key shift is already in place — gold is no longer in a clean bearish leg. The market has taken liquidity below and is now rotating higher into imbalance zones. With geopolitical risk intensifying and broader markets under pressure, gold is aligning both technically and fundamentally for further upside. As long as the current base holds, gold remains positioned to continue higher toward 4,800 and beyond.