FLY: When space becomes mass productionFirefly Aerospace, Inc.BATS:FLYTotoshkaTradesFirefly Aerospace does what used to be the domain of giants: launching rockets, landing modules on the Moon, and building spacecraft for the Pentagon. Founded in 2017, it went public on NASDAQ in August 2025. Since then, everyone who follows the sector understands: space is no longer about science fiction, it’s about contracts, backlog, and scale. Fundamentals Q4 2025 revenue surged 173.7% to $57.67 million. Full-year revenue hit $159.86 million, up 2.6x. Gross margin reached 17.6%, with adjusted EBITDA turning positive at $10 million. Net income remains negative — expected for a company that launched its first Alpha just three years ago. Backlog stands at $1.1–1.2 billion. NASA’s lunar program: Firefly became the first commercial company to soft-land on the Moon (Blue Ghost 1). Next up: Blue Ghost 2 ($130M) and Blue Ghost 3 ($179.6M). Alpha rocket: 25 launches with Lockheed Martin (up to $375M), 23 launches with L3Harris (up to $345M), plus contracts with the U.S. Space Force. Total Alpha backlog is around $800M across 53 planned launches. Defense contracts: In December 2025, the Space Force expanded the FORGE program contract by $109M, bringing the total to $372M. Balance sheet: $893 million in cash. Free cash flow turned positive in Q4 at $79 million, helped by contract prepayments. Risks: post-IPO class-action lawsuits (investors claim the prospectus overstated launch and order expectations). Operational track record: only three of six Alpha launches over five years were fully successful. Technical picture On the daily chart, a classic breakout structure is in place. Price broke a descending trendline, retested it, and is now in a possible second retest. Volume was above average during the breakout and retest, and declined during the pullback - a healthy technical setup. The key zone is the Golden Pocket OTE at $22.86, where the 100-day MA aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the full move. Price tested this area and bounced. Two independent indicators pointed to the same level, and the market confirmed the reaction. Current price: $28.47. Support sits at $24.5–24.7 and $22.86. Resistance at $34.37, then $49.59. Volume on March 31 hit 9.35 million shares, more than double the 4 million average - evidence of institutional interest. Price is holding above the 50-day ($24.45), 100-day ($22.86), and 200-day ($18.11) moving averages. The market is pricing Firefly on its ability to execute its backlog. If the company can scale to 10 launches per year and deliver on its NASA and Pentagon contracts, current levels will likely be seen as an entry point rather than a peak. The breakout structure, volume dynamics, and bounce from the Golden Pocket all support that scenario. As one Firefly engineer put it: “Space doesn’t forgive haste. But it rewards those who come prepared.”