US-Iran newsflow turns positive as markets prepare for Trump’s nation addressOil stays resilient as truce hopes might not ease oil supply disruptionsRisk assets rebound after a difficult March, while dollar weakens across the boardPotentially weak US data today could fuel rate cut Fed expectationsAre We Really That Close to a Middle East Truce?It has been an intense 24 hours as the newsflow has widely opened the door to the termination of the Middle East conflict. Reports that Iranian President Pezeshkian is ready to discuss the end of hostilities, if proper guarantees were provided, were followed by a barrage of comments from US President Trump.Most likely confirming reports that he might unilaterally end the US military operations against Iran, Trump mentioned that the “war in Iran will end in 2-3 weeks” and Secretary of State Rubio talked about “seeing the finish line”.The US President is scheduled to address the nation at 09:00 PM ET on Wednesday (01:00 GMT, Thursday), and, pending a major surprise, he may declare an unconditional win against Iran and outline the path for an exit.Despite the Israeli side pressuring for a continuation of the hostilities, reports from senior military officials about Israeli forces being stretched and overexposed in numerous confrontations, and the realization that the Iron Dome has been working sub-optimally lately, PM Netanyahu might hesitantly accept Trump’s decision to end the current offensive.Interestingly, a likely end to the war does not mean an unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Actually, early on Tuesday, Trump was quite critical of his NATO allies for failing to help the US in the conflict, urging them to get their own oil through the Strait of Hormuz, or buy US oil.Therefore, there could be a situation of the US withdrawing from the region and leaving Saudi Arabia, UAE, China, India and the EU to pick up the broken pieces and find common ground with Iran regarding the flow of oil. With the US out of the way, this might look like an easy process, but the restoration of uninterrupted oil supply could take longer than anticipated.Most Markets RejoiceThe oil market has not been impressed by the newsflow, with WTI oil spot falling below the $100 threshold at the time of writing, but failing to post a meaningful drop, essentially discounting the end of the war.The same cannot be said for other assets though, most of which welcomed Trump’s rhetoric. The last trading session of March and Q1, respectively, ended positively, with the Nasdaq 100 index leading the rally, and Asian and European markets following suit today with sizeable gains. This strong reaction does not change the fact that March was the weakest month for US equity indices since March 2025, and, similarly, the first negative quarter since Q1 2025.Most cryptos managed to finish March in positive territory led by a decent 7.6% gain in bitcoin. We have been praising cryptos’ reaction compared to both gold and stock markets, but March’s performance cannot mask the fact that we are still in a crypto winter, with bitcoin losing 22% of its value in Q1 after a 24% drop in Q4-2025.The US dollar is firmly on the back foot today across the FX spectrum, after posting sizeable gains in March, particularly against the kiwi, Swiss franc and the euro. Further news about an imminent wrap-up of the Middle East hostilities would extend the current dollar weakness, benefiting risk-on currencies.Following a 12% drop in March – the first monthly drop after seven consecutive green months and a 60% rally – gold looks prime to take advantage of the improved market sentiment. A rise above the 50-day simple moving average at $4,800 would constitute a win for the bulls, with a move above $5,180 confirming the trend change.Key US Data in Focus TodayThe March ADP employment report, the March ISM Manufacturing PMI survey, and February retail sales data will offer an updated view on labour market trends, and sentiment during the first month of military operations against Iran. Markets are currently pricing in 14bps of Fed easing by year-end – a number that could quickly increase if today’s and Friday’s jobs data worsen and there is further positive news from the Middle East.