DAVID E. SANGER2026年4月3日 Doug Mills/The New York TimesMore than a month into a war that he insists will come to an end within two or three weeks, President Donald Trump has put himself in a strategic box from which he is finding no easy exit.在这场他坚称将在两到三周内结束的战争已过去一个多月之际，特朗普总统把自己置于一个战略困局之中，找不到轻易的脱身之路。Talks with Iran about a deal to end the conflict, to the degree they are substantive, have so far shown little promise. The key metrics of success described at various points by Trump — keeping Iran from possessing the fuel to make a nuclear weapon, helping the Iranian people topple a government much of the populace despises and reopening the Strait of Hormuz — remain in the distance, at best.与伊朗就结束冲突而进行的谈判，就其实质性程度而言，到目前为止基本没看到什么希望。特朗普在不同阶段描述的成功关键指标——阻止伊朗拥有制造核武器的燃料、帮助伊朗人民推翻一个广受民众唾弃的政府，以及重新开放霍尔木兹海峡——即便往好了说，也仍然遥不可及。Iran’s tolerance for pain appears far higher than Trump anticipated, and despite devastating losses to its arsenal, it retains some ability to strike Israel with missiles. It did so even while Trump spoke about the war Wednesday evening.伊朗对痛苦的承受力似乎远高于特朗普的预期，尽管其军火库遭受重创，但仍保有对以色列实施导弹打击的能力。甚至在特朗普周三晚间谈及战争时，伊朗还发动了袭击。That televised, prime-time address was intended to reassure Americans that the costs of the war would be transitory, that an end to hostilities and a return to normal economic life were imminent. But the markets responded to his speech with deep skepticism.那场在黄金时段播出的电视讲话原本意在安抚美国民众，让人相信战争代价只是暂时的，敌对行动将很快结束，经济生活也将恢复正常。但市场对他的反应是深深的怀疑。Oil prices surged 8% in the hours after his 19-minute address, largely because he described no plan to end what amounts to a tanker hostage crisis in the Strait of Hormuz that is now rippling across the global economy. The strait, he insisted, would “open up naturally” when the conflict is over.在这段19分钟的讲话之后数小时，油价飙升了8%，很大程度上是因为他并未提出任何方案来解决正在波及全球经济、如今几乎演变为霍尔木兹海峡油轮挟持危机的问题。他只是坚持称，海峡会在冲突结束后“自然开放”。At this stage, Trump appears to be offering a host of sometimes contradictory paths forward and faces the possibility that at the end of his own two-to-three-week window, nothing much will have changed. And his promise to send Iran back to the “Stone Ages” if it did not agree to his terms — which he did not specify Wednesday night — would amount to an expansion of the war, not a winding down.在这个阶段，特朗普似乎提出了一系列有时相互矛盾的出路，并面临着一个可能性：在他自己设定的两到三周窗口期结束时，局势可能不会有太大改变。而他承诺如果伊朗不同意他的条件——他在周三晚并未具体说明——就将伊朗打回“石器时代”，这将意味着战争的升级，而非逐步结束。Trump has never been troubled by internal contradictions, of course. He is the master of raising and dispensing with arguments to fit the moment. In the opening moments of the war, he urged Iranians to rise up and take over their government, but he hasn’t mentioned that approach since, other than to say it would probably lead to the slaughter of the Iranian protesters.特朗普当然从来不会被自身的内在矛盾所困扰。他善于根据当下需要提出或抛弃各种论点，堪称此道高手。战争刚开始时，他曾呼吁伊朗民众起来推翻政府，但此后便不再提及这一方式——除了表示这可能导致伊朗抗议者遭到屠杀之外。On Wednesday evening, he said that “regime change was not our goal,” although he had called for just that after the initial attack by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28. He now claims that “regime change has occurred because of their original leaders’ death,” as if a change of personnel was same as a change of regime. (When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini died in 1989, only to be succeeded by another supreme leader, few argued that it constituted a change of the governing structure.)周三晚间，他称“政权更迭并非我们的目标”，尽管在2月28日美以发动最初打击后，他曾明确呼吁政权更迭。他如今又声称，“政权更迭已经发生，因为他们原有领导人已经死了”，仿佛人员更替就等同于政权更迭。（1989年霍梅尼去世、由另一位最高领袖接任时，几乎没有人认为这构成了治理结构的改变。）In weaving back and forth, Trump is relying on techniques he honed in the New York real estate world, where he often succeeded at creating his own reality. But war is different. The enemy gets to shape the environment as well, and the Iranians apparently sense they can wait Trump out. And while Iran has precious few allies — even its biggest oil customer, China, has kept its distance — Iranian leaders seem to be counting on declining stock markets and rising oil prices to speed Trump’s exit from the conflict.在反复摇摆中，特朗普依靠的是他在纽约房地产界磨练出的那套手法——在那里，他经常能成功地创造出属于自己的现实。但战争不同。敌人同样拥有塑造环境的能力，而伊朗人显然觉得自己能耗到特朗普认输。尽管伊朗的盟友少得可怜——就连其最大的石油买家中国也与其保持距离——但伊朗领导人似乎正指望股市下跌和油价上涨来加速特朗普退出这场冲突。So whether the U.S. forces pull back in two or three weeks, as Trump predicted, or whether Washington escalates the fighting and gets stuck, here is a look at the challenges that seem unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.因此，无论美军会如特朗普所预言的那样在两到三周内撤出，还是华盛顿会升级战事并深陷其中，以下这些挑战看起来都不太可能在短期内得到解决。‘Shortly, Very Shortly’“很快，非常快”上个月，美国空军的一架B-1轰炸机在英国某空军基地。 Leon Neal/Getty ImagesThat is how Trump described on Wednesday night the length of time required to “complete all of America’s military objectives.” Earlier that day, he said it would be “two weeks,” or maybe just a bit longer, before he began to withdraw.这是特朗普周三晚间用来形容“完成美国所有军事目标所需时间”的说法。就在当天早些时候，他还表示，大约“两周”，或者稍长一点时间后，他就会开始撤军。Set aside for the moment the fact that Trump frequently criticized former President Joe Biden for setting a firm deadline for exiting Afghanistan, saying such information would only help the enemy. But Trump had earlier set a deadline of his own to leave Afghanistan. And in the case of Iran, Trump’s goal is to reassure the markets that normality, and an open strait, is on the horizon.暂且不论特朗普曾频繁批评前总统拜登为撤离阿富汗设定明确期限（称此类信息只会对敌人有利）这一事实。实际上，特朗普早前也曾为撤离阿富汗设定过自己的期限。而在伊朗问题上，特朗普的目标是让市场放心：正常状态以及海峡的开放指日可待。But at other moments, he has described military missions that could stretch to months or years. He has mused openly about “taking” Kharg Island, where Iran loads 90% of its oil bound for export. “I don’t think they have any defense,” he told The Financial Times. “We could take it very easily.”然而在其他时刻，他描述的军事任务却可能延长至数月甚至数年。他曾公开表示考虑“拿下”哈尔克岛——伊朗90%的出口原油都在那里装船。“我认为他们没有任何防御能力，”他告诉《金融时报》。“我们可以轻而易举地拿下它。”Holding it, however, is another matter. The island is just 16 miles from the Iranian coast. The oil pipelines feeding the port would be an easy target for sabotage.然而，拿下是一回事，守住则是另一回事。该岛距离伊朗海岸仅25公里，向港口输送石油的管道很容易成为破坏行动的目标。Trump not only needs to get the strait open; he needs to keep it open. In the same speech in which he said the problem would more or less take care of itself, he also told allies who rely on getting their oil through the strait that they should “build up some delayed courage” and go “grab it and cherish it.”特朗普不仅需要让海峡开放，还需要保持其开放。在同一场讲话中，他一方面表示问题大致会自行解决，另一方面又对那些依赖该海峡运输石油的盟友说，他们应该“鼓起一点迟来的勇气”，去“把它夺过来并守住”。But the Europeans are so angry at him — for not consulting them before initiating a conflict that triggered an economic and energy crisis, for conducting what many of them consider to be an illegal attack — that they are meeting this week to discuss their next steps without the presence of American representatives. “This is not our war, and we’re not going to get dragged into it,” Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, said Wednesday.但欧洲方面对他极为不满——因为他在发动这场引发经济与能源危机的冲突前没有征求他们的意见，也因为他发动了一场他们中许多人认为是非法的攻击。本周，欧洲国家将召开会议讨论下一步行动，但没有美国代表参加。“这不是我们的战争，我们不会被拖进去，”英国首相斯塔默周三表示。Trump can barely contain his fury at such remarks, which have led to his threat to leave NATO. Yet in an Easter-related event at the White House on Wednesday, which was closed to the press but was videotaped and mistakenly posted to YouTube by the White House, Trump seemed to acknowledge that the United States would need some help. He mockingly referred to phone conversations with President Emmanuel Macron of France.特朗普几乎难以掩饰对这些言论的愤怒，甚至威胁要退出北约。不过，在周三白宫一场与复活节相关的活动上（该活动未对媒体开放，但被录像并被白宫误传到了YouTube上），特朗普似乎也承认，美国需要一些帮助。他还带着嘲讽地提及与法国总统马克龙的通话。“I said, ‘No, no, I don’t need after the war is won, Emmanuel,’” Trump said, recalling his conversation. In fact, his aides concede, any patrol of the strait could last for years.“我说，‘不，不，埃马纽埃尔，我不需要在赢得战争后再让你帮忙，’”特朗普回忆道。事实上，他的助手们也承认，任何海峡巡逻任务都可能持续数年。‘I Don’t Care About That’“我不在乎那个”1962年，肯尼迪总统与空军参谋长柯蒂斯·李梅上将在佛罗里达观看B-52轰炸机。It was only a few weeks ago that Trump repeated, in a social media post, his primary goal for the war: “Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability,” he wrote, “and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation.”就在几周前，特朗普还在社交媒体上重申他这场战争的首要目标：“绝不允许伊朗哪怕接近拥有核能力，”他写道，“并始终确保美国能够迅速而有力地应对这种情况。”None of the past five American presidents would disagree with that goal, which has been attempted via many paths. The United States sabotaged Iran’s nuclear centrifuges during the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush. Obama negotiated a broad accord in which Iran gave up 97% of its uranium stockpile. In his first term, Trump withdrew from that accord, imposing crushing sanctions on Iran but paving the way for the country to build up its current stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium.过去五位美国总统都不会反对这一目标，他们曾尝试过多种路径来实现它。在奥巴马和布什执政期间，美国曾对伊朗的核离心机进行过破坏。奥巴马谈判达成了一项广泛协议，让伊朗放弃了97%的铀库存。在特朗普的第一个任期内，他退出了该协议，对伊朗实施了严厉制裁，却也为伊朗积累如今接近武器级的浓缩铀库存铺平了道路。When the war started Feb. 28, Trump justified it by making an argument that the presence of that stockpile, enriched to 60% purity, was intolerable, even if it was in tunnels whose entrances were buried under the rubble created by a U.S. air attack in June 2025. U.S. intelligence officials said there was no evidence that the Iranians had recovered the casks of nuclear material, though everyone agreed that sooner or later, the Iranians would likely dig them out.当战争于2月28日爆发时，特朗普给出的理由是：伊朗拥有纯度高达60%的浓缩铀库存是不可容忍的——即便这些库存存放在地下隧道中，而隧道的入口已在2025年6月美军的空袭中被掩埋在废墟之下。美国情报官员表示，目前没有证据表明伊朗人已经取回了那些核材料桶，尽管所有人都认为，伊朗人迟早会把它们挖出来。So it was pretty shocking to hear Trump, on Wednesday morning, telling Reuters in an interview that he didn’t really care about the stockpile because it is “so far underground.” What made his statement particularly stunning was that Trump has spoken for more than a decade about the need to block Iran from producing uranium, which it could stockpile and enrich to a form usable in a bomb. It has been a constant theme for Trump as he has made the case that a nuclear-armed Iran would be an existential threat to the United States and the world.因此，周三上午听到特朗普在接受路透社采访时表示他并不真正在乎这批库存，因为它“埋得太深了”，着实令人震惊。特朗普的言论尤其令人瞠目结舌之处在于，十多年来他一直在谈论必须阻止伊朗生产铀——伊朗可以储存铀并进一步浓缩成制造核武器所需的材料。这一直是他反复强调的论点：一个拥有核武器的伊朗将对美国乃至世界构成生存性威胁。“We’ll always be watching it by satellite,” the president said. He repeated a similar line in his speech.“我们会一直用卫星监视它，”总统说道。他在演讲中也重复了类似的说法。今年2月卫星拍摄的伊朗伊斯法罕核设施的受损情况。His statement naturally raised the question about whether he had deliberately hyped the threat that an Iranian nuclear bomb was “imminent” — an echo of the Bush administration’s case for invading Iraq in 2003.他的这番表态自然引发了一个疑问：他是否刻意夸大了伊朗核武器“迫在眉睫”的威胁——这让人联想到布什政府在2003年为入侵伊拉克所提出的理由。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有四本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。