Markets have moved fast to absorb a single idea: the conflict may be short. Pricing across equities, oil, and currencies now reflects a working assumption that the current phase lasts weeks, not months.Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have pushed higher, building on one of the strongest sessions in months. Asia has moved first, with South Korea’s Kospi jumping more than 6%. Energy has turned just as sharply. Oil, which briefly traded near $119, has fallen back toward $105 as traders reassess the risk of sustained disruption.Speed matters here. Comments from US President Donald Trump pointing to a possible end within “two or three weeks,” alongside confirmation from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that talks with Iran remain active, have shifted the narrative in hours. Capital is being repositioned on the basis of a compressed timeline rather than a confirmed outcome.Markets operate on probabilities. A shorter conflict now carries a higher implied likelihood, and that probability is being expressed immediately in prices. Oil is the clearest transmission channel. As crude pulls back, inflation expectations ease, rate pressure softens, and equities respond. The chain reaction is visible across asset classes and across regions.The magnitude of the equity move suggests investors had been positioned defensively and are now moving back into risk. That shift can be self-reinforcing in the short term, particularly in sectors sensitive to rates and growth expectations. Tech and cyclicals tend to respond first, followed by broader indices as confidence builds.Asia’s lead is notable. The surge in the Kospi points to global capital rotating toward risk-sensitive markets ahead of any formal resolution. Cross-border flows often move before headlines settle, and current price action suggests international investors are already adjusting exposures.Currency markets are beginning to reflect the same shift. As geopolitical risk premiums ease and inflation expectations soften, support for the dollar from safe-haven demand can moderate. A sustained move lower in oil would reinforce that trend. A reversal higher would bring it back quickly.None of this removes the underlying uncertainty. No agreement has been reached and diplomacy is ongoing. Pricing is therefore tied to a single assumption about duration. If that assumption changes, the adjustment will be rapid.Oil remains the fulcrum. It captures the market’s view on disruption risk and feeds directly into inflation and rate expectations. Watch crude, and much of the rest follows.Markets have aligned around a defined timeline. If that timeline holds, risk assets can extend gains. If it slips, the repricing will be immediate and broad.