HSBC flags alarming risk for Tesla stock investors

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(TSLA) has been one of the market’s most volatile and closely watched names over the past year.Incorporated in July 2003, the American multinational automotive company headquartered in Austin, Texas, has delivered strong long-term gains. What has helped it?It’s optimism around artificial intelligence, robotaxis, and autonomous driving. But beneath the surface, cracks are starting to form. A new warning from one major Wall Street bank is sounding the alarm and raising a more serious question.Could the stock be heading for a much deeper drop?Shares are trading around $362 as of this writing, and are already down 19% year-to-date as per Yahoo Finance. Yet even after that pullback, HSBC believes the decline may not be over.In fact, the bank’s lead analyst sees a scenario in which Tesla stock could fall by more than 60%. As much as 65%. So what’s driving that bold call? And again,  should you be worried if you have Tesla in your portfolio?HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall has reiterated a “reduce” rating on Tesla, with a $131 price target. Yes, you read it right. That's far below current levels.That implies a potential drop of roughly 63% from where the stock is recently trading.The reasoning? It comes down to valuation pressure and slowing momentum in Tesla’s core business.Related: HSBC drops blunt verdict on 150-year-old dividend stockWhile bullish investors have focused on future opportunities like robotaxis and humanoid robotics, HSBC argues the core electric vehicle (EV) segment still matters most. And that’s where cracks are starting to show.Vehicle deliveries declined in 2025, while overall revenue slipped about 3% year-over-year. Production also decreased 5.5% year over year.If that trend continues, it could weigh heavily on the stock.So the big question becomes. Can Tesla’s future bets outweigh weakness in its main business?Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images · Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesTesla’s challenges aren’t happening in a vacuum. The global EV market is shifting. And the shift is not necessarily in Tesla’s favor.HSBC notes that EV demand is becoming more regionalized, with consumers in markets like China and Europe increasingly favoring local brands.That shift is already showing up in the numbers.China-based rival BYD has surpassed Tesla in annual EV salesTesla delivered about 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, trailing BYD’s 2.26 millionEuropean sales have weakened sharply in key marketsThe company hasn’t launched a new mass-market vehicle since the Cybertruck in 2023. 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