It appears that there is no “earnings recession,” and the first quarter earnings are expected to be stronger, since earnings surprises are normal. In the fourth quarter, the S&P 500 earnings rose at a 14.1% annual pace. For the first quarter, the analyst community is estimating that the S&P 500’s first-quarter earnings will rise 14%.ADP reported on Wednesday that 62,000 private payroll jobs were created in March, which was higher than economists’ consensus expectation of 40,000. Much of the ADP private sector job growth was likely attributable to the Kaiser healthcare strike ending, as well as better spring weather creating construction jobs. Meanwhile, there were 11,000 manufacturing jobs lost in March, but the biggest drag was that trade, transportation, and utilities accounted for 58,000 job losses. We had a very encouraging retail sales report that should help boost GDP growth. The Commerce Department announced on Wednesday that retail sales rose 0.6% in February, which was higher than economists’ consensus estimate of a 0.5% increase. Auto sales rose 1.2% in February, so that is a good sign that consumers are now buying more durable goods. Fully 10 of the 13 categories surveyed reported an increase in February.The other good news is that the Conference Board announced on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 91.8 in March, up from 91 in February. The present situation component surged to 123.3 in March, up from 118.7 in February. The expectations component declined to 70.9 in March, down from 72.6 in February. I suspect that the fact that the weather significantly improved in March also helped to lift consumer sentiment.President Trump is addressing the nation on Wednesday evening. Both President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday said that the end of the war could be near. Specifically, President Trump on Tuesday said that “We’ll be leaving very soon” and added, “within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three.”Travel through the Strait of Hormuz remains precarious. More ships are now passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but there have been two recent attacks, including one on a Kuwait oil tanker. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday said other countries needed to “be prepared to stand up” and help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and its allies to open the Strait of Hormuz by force and is seeking a UN Security Council resolution to apparently occupy strategic islands.I think it is safe to say that President Trump wants lower crude oil prices and that the Trump Administration will continue to strive to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It is also imperative that fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume, since food prices are expected to remain high if fertilizer cannot boost crop yields during the planting season.