1929 Scenario: Will the Next Macro Cycle Begin Only in 2032?

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1929 Scenario: Will the Next Macro Cycle Begin Only in 2032?S&P 500SP:SPXvladislavshuklinWhat if the macro-cycle bull impulse that began in 1979 was completed in December 2025, and the market is now entering a path comparable to the Great Depression era? In this model, the current structure is compared with the 1929–1954 US market cycle, during which the market declined by approximately 89% from peak to bottom and required about 25 years to recover to new highs. If a proportional decline unfolds in the current cycle, the market could enter a long-term bearish phase with a projected drawdown toward 63% below the December 2025 peak, with a possible cycle completion around 2032. This is not a forecast, but a historical macro-cycle comparison based on decline magnitude and recovery duration.