5 min readApr 3, 2026 06:15 AM IST First published on: Apr 3, 2026 at 06:15 AM ISTUS President Donald Trump addressed the nation on April 1. The war being at an inflection point, the world awaited it. Both a ceasefire and an escalation were possible as Iran was avoiding compromise. Trump now threatens to bomb Iran “extremely hard” and banish it “back to the Stone Ages”. He added, derogatorily, that this is “where they belong”. Although Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are mediating, no deal is visible. Iran appears confident, having survived the relentless airstrikes and retained retaliatory capacity.As the war progressed, US objectives evolved. A question arose as to whether the US and Israel erred in expecting a popular uprising after Iran’s top leadership was decapitated. Trump now asserts that “regime change was not… a goal” and that he really wanted Iran to “have no nuclear weapons. And that goal has been attained”. However, reports have also emerged about a “difficult” telephonic chat between US Vice President J D Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Vance apparently regretted Israel’s misleading and flawed intelligence, which raised wrong expectations. Was India also misled by this, adopting an apparently pro-Israel stance at the war’s start?AdvertisementThe Middle East Peace Process dates from the 1991 Madrid conference. India established diplomatic relations with Israel in January 1992. I was then director (West Asia and North America) and was instructed to immediately submit a cabinet note. Its prompt approval reflected its diplomatic relevance, and likely US satisfaction. It also facilitated India’s economic reforms. Trump, in his first term, overturned these understandings. The Palestine issue was delinked from the normalisation of Israeli relations with the US’s Arab allies. The Abraham Accords brought Bahrain and the UAE into this game. Strategically, the group aimed to contain Iran’s regional influence, especially across the Shia belt running, via Iraq and Syria, to Lebanon. Covid and Trump’s electoral defeat stalled this move.The Gaza conflict, starting October 7, 2023, restrained countries like Saudi Arabia from joining the Abraham Accords. But both Bahrain and the UAE held on, despite Netanyahu’s ICC indictment. Before Trump’s second term began, the pro-Iran Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria was ousted. Israel also decapitated Hezbollah’s top leadership. With Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff favouring Israel, the next and supposedly final phase of regional restructuring was envisaged, extending US dominance over West Asia and the Gulf, using Israel and the GCC ruling families. The 12-day airstrikes by the US and Israel on Iran in June 2025 claimed the destruction of three Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities.Recently, a 15-point list of US demands emerged, seeking the demolition of the same three facilities, a commitment to abjure nuclear weapons, and the transfer of 400 kg of uranium, enriched to almost weapons-grade (60 per cent), to the IAEA. Iran must also stop assisting its regional proxies and not target regional energy hubs. In return, the US could lift sanctions and assist with power generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.AdvertisementIranian demands include the lifting of sanctions, the ejection of all US bases from the region, reparations, and the formalisation of its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also wants international guarantees against future attacks. The Pakistani foreign minister’s visit to China appeared aimed at co-opting China as a guarantor. On freedom of navigation through the strait, via which 20 per cent of global oil supplies transit, Trump passed the buck.you may likeA ceasefire requires mutual compromise. Any US ground assault will face IRGC defiance. The safety of 10 million Indians in GCC countries, their huge remittances, and India’s massive trade with the GCC stand endangered. The Americans claim regime change in Iran has occurred and the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons has been thwarted. Elements closely aligned to the IRGC now rule. If the enriched uranium stays in Iran, albeit under debris, Iran may actually seek nuclear weapons, with the former supreme leader’s injunction against them likely overruled. Like Taliban 2.0, Iran may emerge stronger.Iran is emboldened, having shrewdly moved its drones and missiles into caves under the mountains. Its retaliatory capacity has survived despite the US and Israel’s air dominance. Iran’s minimum agenda is now more ambitious than it was during pre-war talks in Oman. If the US escalates by landing troops on Iranian islands or the mainland, the chances of a ceasefire recede. Some Iranian demands have already been conceded, like the US ignoring Iran’s control of the strait. Similarly, the US has already permitted Iranian oil exports. The sticking point will be Iran’s civil nuclear ambitions and its demand for a US military exit from the region. But to guess Trump’s actions is as good as a coin toss.The writer is former ambassador to Iran and the UAE