2 Apr EURUSD outlook: Downside pressure persistsEuro vs United States DollarTICKMILL:EURUSDChartingGenieEURUSD retreated from the H4 mitigation block and formed lower swings, suggesting the potential for further downside. If the price sustains its bearish momentum and retests the resistance at 1.16151, a reversal below this may occur. Breaking below 1.15212 may prompt a steeper decline toward the support at 1.14582. Conversely, breaking above 1.16305 may prompt a surge toward the following resistance at 1.16396. EURUSD came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened after snapping a two-day decline. The move was driven by renewed safe-haven demand following heightened uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, after US President Donald Trump signaled that US strategic objectives were close to being achieved while also warning of potential escalation if no ceasefire is reached within the next two to three weeks. EURUSD remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines, with the euro struggling to gain traction as capital flows continue to favor the dollar in periods of elevated risk. The situation was further complicated by conflicting signals around ceasefire negotiations, as Iran denied US claims of requesting a truce, reinforcing market uncertainty. At the same time, rising oil prices have added an inflationary layer to the macro backdrop, prompting markets to reassess the Fed's policy path. Expectations for rate cuts have been pared back, providing additional support to the dollar and limiting EURUSD upside potential. Geopolitical risk premiums and shifting Fed expectations may continue to pressure the EURUSD. A sustained improvement may require clear de-escalation in geopolitical tensions or a dovish repricing of Fed policy. By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness