SPX - 2025 Moving Average FractalS&P 500SP:SPXVIAQUANTFor weeks I have been outlining the weakness the S&P 500 has been experiencing, driven primarily by the US-Iran war. Now a familiar fractal appears to be beginning to form. One that closely mirrors the March–April 2025 timeframe. Looking at the 200 EMA (blue line) and the 200 MA (purple line) something quite striking becomes apparent. Following the initial breakdown of roughly 10% in both 2025 and 2026, price staged a bear market rally back toward the 200 MA. In 2025, SPX slightly breached the 200 MA before printing a doji and reversing back below it. In 2026, we are currently seeing SPX get rejected from the 200 EMA, though it is still possible price rallies slightly higher to tag the 200 MA before rolling over, consistent with the 2025 fractal. Since Trump is speaking post-market tonight on the Iran situation, this idea will either be completely negated (by price decisively breaking above both moving averages) or the breakdown will begin with a confirmed rejection off the 200 EMA. In 2025, that rejection led to an additional 16% decline before the low was established. For the current cycle, I am projecting approximately a 12% drop to the $5,800 level if the rejection is confirmed and tensions escalate. This level is one of the breakdown zones I outlined in this post: Watch tonight's announcement closely. The next major directional move for the S&P 500 will likely be determined within the next 24 hours. For additional context and support of the breakdown thesis, please refer to these related ideas: