Rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States are beginning to ripple through global commodity markets, with fertilizer prices emerging as a key pressure point for agriculture in Africa and Ghana. The disruption of critical energy and shipping routes in the Middle East is tightening supply chains for essential farm inputs, raising concerns about production costs and food security in 2026.At the center of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor through which a significant share of the world’s oil, gas and fertilizer exports pass. Industry data indicates that nearly half of global urea exports and about 30 percent of ammonia supplies originate from the Persian Gulf region. Any instability in this corridor immediately affects global fertilizer availability and pricing.Since the escalation of tensions, global fertilizer prices have climbed sharply, with estimates suggesting increases ranging between 9 percent and 31 percent compared to 2025 levels. The price surge is being driven not only by supply constraints but also by higher energy costs, as natural gas remains a critical input in nitrogen-based fertilizer production.For African economies, the impact is more severe due to heavy reliance on imports. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, Sub-Saharan Africa imports over 80 percent of its fertilizer requirements, making the region highly vulnerable to global price shocks. Countries such as Ghana, which depend on imported urea and other nitrogen-based inputs, are directly exposed to these external disruptions.In Ghana, fertilizer remains a central component of agricultural productivity, particularly for staple crops such as maize, rice and vegetables. The government’s flagship programmes has historically relied on subsidized fertilizer to boost yields and support smallholder farmers. However, rising global prices are likely to increase the fiscal burden of these subsidies or force a pass-through of costs to farmers.Agricultural analysts warn that higher fertilizer prices could lead to reduced application rates among farmers, ultimately lowering crop yields. This creates a direct risk to food supply levels and could exacerbate inflationary pressures in the food market. Ghana has already experienced episodes of food price volatility in recent years, driven by a combination of climate shocks, currency depreciation and global supply chain disruptions.The experience of the Russia-Ukraine War offers a recent parallel. That conflict disrupted global grain and fertilizer markets, pushing prices to record highs and exposing vulnerabilities in import-dependent economies. The current Iran–US tensions threaten to replicate similar dynamics, particularly in fertilizer markets where supply chains are tightly linked to energy flows.Beyond pricing, there are also concerns about physical supply constraints. Temporary shutdowns of production facilities in the Gulf region due to energy disruptions have further tightened availability. For countries without domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity, including Ghana, this raises the risk of delayed shipments and supply shortages during critical planting seasons.The implications for food security in Ghana in 2026 are significant. Higher input costs could discourage planting or reduce farm investment, leading to lower output. This, in turn, may drive up food prices, weaken household purchasing power and increase reliance on food imports at a time when global prices remain elevated.Experts argue that the situation underscores the urgency for structural reforms in Ghana’s agricultural sector. These include diversifying fertilizer sources, investing in local blending and production capacity, and promoting sustainable farming practices that reduce dependence on imported inputs.There is also growing attention on alternative approaches such as organic fertilization, crop rotation and soil management techniques that enhance natural nitrogen fixation. While these solutions require time and technical support to scale, they offer a pathway to reduce exposure to volatile global input markets.Ultimately, the Iran–US conflict is a stark reminder of how geopolitical risks translate into economic realities for developing countries. For Ghana, the challenge in 2026 will be balancing short-term interventions to protect farmers with long-term strategies to build a more resilient and self-sufficient agricultural system.