The hike in oil prices is affecting the supply of fertilizersThe Africa Supply Chain Confederation says the continent is bracing for rising fuel and food prices following the escalating disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.This critical global oil transit route has been partially blocked due to the war in Iran.Ronald Mlalazi, the Confederation’s President, says the war involving Iran has moved from a geopolitical story to a supply chain shock—and fast.He says during normal times, roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.“Today, it’s partially blocked, militarised, and unpredictable. That matters more than most people realise, especially in Africa. This is not just an oil story. Yes, oil is the headline,” he remarked.The African Supply Chain Confederation (ASCON) unifies professional African supply chain standards and networks.Through collaboration, education, and advocacy, ASCON fosters a cohesive ecosystem that empowers professional bodies and drives continental impact.Quoting the International Energy Agency, Mlalazi said the partial blockade in the small channel has had the largest disruption in oil market history. The International Energy Agency reports that up to 30% of global oil flows are affected.“Prices are responding accordingly. Analysts are openly discussing $150–$200 per barrel scenarios if disruption persists into the next 4–8 weeks,” he is quoted in a press statement.He said anyone who thinks that the conflict has only affected the flow of oil would be missing the real risk.“Because Hormuz doesn’t just move fuel. It moves fertiliser, petrochemicals, plastics, and liquefied natural gas. And that’s where Africa gets hit hardest.”Across East and Southern Africa, dependence on Middle Eastern supply chains is structural, not optional.Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Zambia are already implementing emergency measures, including subsidies and reserve releases.In parts of East Africa, over 50% of fertiliser imports come via these routes, and globally, up to one-third of fertiliser trade moves through Hormuz.“And prices are moving fast; Urea prices are already up by 50% since the conflict began, and fertiliser shortages are expected to impact planting cycles within weeks. That translates directly into higher food prices, lower yields, and increased inflation. In economies where food already dominates household spending, that’s not a marginal issue. It’s systemic.”His warning coincides with a March 30th report by the UN Trade and Development Agency-UNCTAD.The report “From gas to grain: Fertilizer disruptions raise risks for food security and trade” said that the ongoing conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz region is disrupting energy and fertilizer flows, with measurable impacts on costs and growing risks for food systems, trade, and vulnerable economies.It reports that the escalation of the conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz region, including Iran and the Gulf States, is increasingly reflected in fertilizer markets, linking disruptions in energy and shipping to agricultural markets, future food supply, and trade. UNCTAD says Energy markets have reacted immediately, with oil prices having surged sharply.Natural gas prices have reportedly risen steeply across both Europe and Asia – in Asia, prices have roughly doubled, with Europe seeing similarly sharp increases.The rise in oil prices directly affects the cost of fertilizers because natural gas is a key input in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and ammonia. As gas prices rise, fertilizer production costs increase, pushing prices higher.UNCTAD warns that the Strait of Hormuz disruption could worsen access to fertilizer for some of the poorest countries.From UNCTAD estimates, Sudan is likely imports 54% of its fertilizer through the Persian Gulf in 2024, while neighboring Tanzania and Kenya used the same route at 31% and 26% respectively.“This reliance coincides with limited capacity to absorb price increases or secure alternative supplies. Many import-dependent economies face tight fiscal space, external imbalances, and constrained access to finance, reducing their ability to respond to rising costs.” UNCTAD acknowledged that the disruption is also driving up transport and trade costs.“Freight rates for oil tankers have risen by more than 90% since late February. Bunker fuel prices have nearly doubled, while war risk insurance premiums have surged, with some insurers withdrawing coverage altogether for vessels operating in the Persian Gulf.”It said shipowners are being forced either to suspend transits or absorb sharply higher insurance costs, with premiums rising several times over for each voyage.“These higher transport and insurance costs are feeding through to fertilizer prices and, in turn, to agricultural production and exports.”Meanwhile, the African Supply Chain Confederation (ASCON) warns that as the conflict rages amidst a hike in fuel prices, the logistics industry in Africa will be greatly affected.“Diesel is the bloodstream of African logistics. As oil spikes, transport costs rise almost instantly. We can expect higher road freight tariffs, airline and shipping surcharges, and margin compression across FMCG and retail,” warns Mlalazi.He said major shipping lines have already rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times.“That means longer lead times, working capital pressure, and more stockouts.” On fertilizer, Mlalazi said when a farmer misses the planting window, the impact shows up months later in food inflation, social pressure, and currency weakness.“The supply chain doesn’t break in one place; it ripples. The brutal reality is that Africa is a price taker. Most African economies are net importers of fuel and fertiliser, and are highly exposed to global shipping routes, which means there is very little control, only response.”He says, while the war appears to some far away, it is not a distant war; it is a supply chain event with immediate commercial consequences.“If the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable for another month. Africa will not simply absorb higher prices; it will contend with slower trade, tighter margins, and rising food insecurity. The uncomfortable truth is that the businesses that act early will appear paranoid today and exceptionally well-positioned in thirty days.”-URNThe post Africa Faces Fuel, Food Price Shock as Hormuz Disruption Deepens appeared first on Business Focus.