Dollar-yen holding near two-year highsUS Dollar/Japanese YenFX:USDJPYMichael_Stark_ExnessThe yen hasn’t functioned in its traditional role as a haven in recent weeks given the primarily geopolitical and military rather than economic nature of the current crisis. Japan imports the large majority of its crude oil from the Gulf and so is among the most vulnerable major countries to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile the consensus for a hike by the BoJ on 28 April has strengthened recently with a probability of around 70% that the key policy rate will go up to 1%. The 100% weekly Fibonacci retracement is set here to June 2024’s closing high, the likely area of intervention by the BoJ and possibly the government of Japan. The trend is (usually) your friend of course and there’s no signal of overbought here, but TA is unlikely to be very useful if the authorities step in directly to try to stabilise the yen. In the event of an intervention, the 61.8% Fibo is a possible support, but absent such action the price seems very unlikely to decline that much in the near future. ¥158 as a round number and the area of 20 March’s bounce is a potential zone of interest. 3 April’s NFP will certainly provide short-term opportunities in both directions but even a particularly positive result is unlikely to drive a clear breakout above ¥160. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.