Fundamental Market Analysis for April 2, 2026 USDJPYUS Dollar/Japanese YenSAXO:USDJPYFresh-Forexcast2004USD/JPY is holding near 159.400, with the pair’s movement driven by a combination of geopolitics and rate expectations. Ahead of key U.S. statements on the Iran conflict, the market is again pricing in the risk of a prolonged confrontation and disruptions to energy supplies, which supports the dollar through safe-haven demand and expectations of higher inflation. In Japan, business surveys point to improved sentiment, but companies are also factoring in rising costs for fuel and raw materials. The Bank of Japan has to proceed cautiously: inflation remains above target, yet the resilience of domestic demand and wage growth trends are still critical. This means policy normalization is gradual, while the yield differential continues to favor the dollar; at the same time, authorities are closely monitoring the exchange rate near 160. The next key guidepost for the market is U.S. employment data: a strong report would reinforce expectations that rates will stay high and could push the pair higher. Weaker figures, by contrast, would revive talk of rate cuts and could trigger a pullback. Under the current conditions, the dollar retains the advantage, so the preferred scenario is further USD/JPY upside. Trading recommendation: BUY 159.400, SL 159.200, TP 161.200