黄安伟, JULIAN E. BARNES2026年4月2日美国多个情报机构评估认为，伊朗政府目前不愿就结束战争进行认真谈判。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesMultiple U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed in recent days that the Iranian government is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations over ending the U.S.-Israeli war, according to U.S. officials.据美国官员称，多个美国情报机构近日评估认为，伊朗政府目前不愿就结束与美以的战争进行实质性谈判。The assessments say the Iranian government believes it is in a strong position in the war and does not have to accede to America’s diplomatic demands, the officials said. And while Iran is willing to keep channels open, they said, it does not trust the United States and does not think President Trump is serious about negotiations.这些评估指出，伊朗政府认为自己在这场战争中处于有利地位，因此无需接受美国的外交要求。评估还认为，尽管伊朗愿意保持沟通渠道畅通，但并不信任美国，认为特朗普总统对谈判缺乏诚意。In the last year, Mr. Trump has ordered attacks on Iran twice in the middle of negotiations over the country’s nuclear program.在过去一年中，特朗普两次在伊朗核计划谈判期间下令对伊朗发动打击。The assessments align with recent statements from Iranian officials, who reject Mr. Trump’s assertion that the two sides are making progress in discussions mediated by other countries. A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that the government in Tehran had not asked for a cease-fire, despite a statement from Mr. Trump that morning that it had, an Iranian state news agency reported.这些评估与伊朗官员近期的表态一致，伊朗方面否认了特朗普关于双方在其他国家斡旋的谈判中取得进展的说法。据伊朗官方通讯社报道，伊朗外交部发言人周三表示，德黑兰政府并未要求停火，尽管特朗普当天上午声称伊朗已提出停火请求。Mr. Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. military would wrap up its campaign against Iran in two to three weeks. But any decision by Iran that it should continue fighting would complicate that objective. The president said in a speech on Wednesday night that “if there is no deal,” the U.S. military would strike “each and every one” of Iran’s power plants, an act that would be widely considered a war crime.特朗普周二对记者表示，美军将在两到三周内结束对伊朗的军事行动。但伊朗若决定继续作战，将使这一目标变得复杂起来。总统在周三晚间的讲话中表示，“如果没有达成协议”，美军将打击伊朗“每一座”发电厂，此举将被广泛视为战争罪行。The Iranian government could engage diplomatically under the right conditions, said two Iranian officials and a Pakistani official. Tehran wants to see that Washington is willing to talk seriously about ending the war and not just negotiate a temporary cease-fire, they said. They added that the language in public statements from Iran has been harsher than that of private messages it has passed to the United States.两名伊朗官员和一名巴基斯坦官员表示，在适当条件下，伊朗政府仍可能进行外交接触。他们表示，德黑兰希望看到华盛顿愿意认真讨论结束战争，而不仅仅是谈一个临时停火协议。他们还说，伊朗对外公开表态的措辞要比通过私下渠道向美国传递的信息强硬。Those officials and American ones spoke on the condition of anonymity for this article because of the sensitivities around wartime diplomacy and intelligence.由于战时外交和情报问题的敏感性，这些官员及美方官员均要求匿名接受本文采访。伊斯兰革命卫队指挥官的葬礼于周三举行。革命卫队内部的一个强硬派系已成为政府中最有影响力的声音，该派系更不可能做出让步。Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Wednesday that Iran’s “New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE!” But he said he would not consider that until Iran allowed ships to safely cross the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranian military has effectively closed by attacking oil tankers.特朗普周三在社交媒体上写道，伊朗“新政权的总统远没有前任们激进，也聪明得多，刚刚向美利坚合众国请求停火！”。但他表示，在伊朗允许船只安全通过霍尔木兹海峡之前，他不会考虑这一请求。通过袭击油轮，伊朗军方实际上已使该海峡处于关闭状态。Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said on Wednesday that Mr. Trump’s claim that his country had asked for a cease-fire was “false and baseless,” according to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, or IRIB, the state news organization.据伊朗官方的伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台报道，伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加埃周三表示，特朗普关于伊朗请求停火的说法是“虚假且毫无根据的”。The dilemma over the strait has become a pivot point in the war, as its closure roils global markets and forces countries around the world to make plans to ration fuel.霍尔木兹海峡的困局已成为事态发展的关键节点，海峡的关闭扰乱了全球市场，迫使世界各国制定燃料配给计划。It was also unclear to whom Mr. Trump was referring when he said “New Regime President.” The initial attacks by the United States and Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and some senior officials, but the president of Iran since 2024, Masoud Pezeshkian, is alive and remains in office. Iranian clerics have appointed a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the hard-line son of the deceased ayatollah who suffered leg injuries in the first strikes and has not been seen in public, according to Iranian and Israeli officials.目前也不清楚特朗普所说的“新政权的总统”具体指谁。美国和以色列的初期袭击击毙了伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及一些高级官员，但自2024年起担任伊朗总统的马苏德·佩泽希齐扬仍在世且仍在任。据伊朗和以色列官员称，伊朗神职人员已任命新的最高领袖，即已故最高领袖的强硬派儿子穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，他在首轮袭击中腿部受伤，此后未再公开露面。The United States and Iran are exchanging messages through intermediaries and perhaps directly, but are not in negotiations over terms of a cease-fire or ending the war, U.S. and Iranian officials said.美国和伊朗官员表示，美伊双方正通过中间渠道甚至直接渠道互通信息，但双方并未就停火条款或结束战争展开谈判。Mr. Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, on Wednesday released a letter addressed to the American people that suggested diplomacy might be possible, while also saying Iran would defy hostile powers. It was unclear whether the letter represented a consensus among Iranian leaders. On Tuesday, Mr. Pezeshkian said that the Trump administration’s attacks during previous negotiations demonstrated that the United States “does not believe in diplomacy and is merely seeking to impose its own interests.”伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬周三发布了一封致美国民众的公开信，暗示外交途径仍有可能，同时也表示伊朗将对抗敌对势力。目前尚不清楚这封信是否代表伊朗领导层的共识。周二，佩泽希齐扬表示，特朗普政府在此前谈判期间发动攻击，说明美国“并不相信外交，只图自身利益”。Mr. Trump has repeatedly spoken of the possibility of ending the war with a diplomatic settlement, but he has also threatened to escalate the war and expand the range of U.S. targets to energy infrastructure and desalination plants, attacks that many legal experts say would be war crimes.特朗普多次提及通过外交途径结束战争的可能性，但同时也威胁要升级战争，将美国的打击范围扩大至能源基础设施和海水淡化厂——许多法律专家表示，这类攻击将构成战争罪。The intelligence assessments, which appear in multiple reports, have been consistent since the beginning of the conflict, one official said.一名官员表示，多份报告中的情报评估自冲突爆发以来一直保持一致。Senior Iranian officials continue to resist making the kinds of concessions on its nuclear program and ballistic missile production that the Trump administration has demanded.伊朗高级官员仍然拒绝在核计划和弹道导弹生产方面作出特朗普政府所要求的那类让步。Iran says it has a right to build a civilian nuclear program by enriching uranium, which U.S. officials oppose. And Iranian officials see the military’s ballistic missiles as the country’s main form of deterrence, analysts say. Iranian officials perceive the United States and Israel pressuring Iran to give up both of those as an infringement on the country’s sovereignty.伊朗表示，其通过铀浓缩发展民用核计划是正当权利，但这一点遭到美国官员反对。分析人士称，伊朗方面将军方的弹道导弹视为国家主要的威慑手段。伊朗官员认为，美国和以色列施压要求放弃这两者，是对伊朗国家主权的侵犯。上海的储油罐。中国是伊朗石油的最大买家。Mr. Trump and his top aides have vacillated in their public statements on their war goals and whether the U.S. military has already achieved them, which complicates any efforts at diplomacy.特朗普及其高级助手在公开声明中，关于战争目标以及美军是否已实现这些目标的问题上摇摆不定，这使得任何外交努力都变得复杂。In recent days, Mr. Trump has said that the United States has already destroyed two regimes in Iran in this war, and that a third, more compliant one is now in place. However, the current government, led by Mr. Khamenei, remains theocratic, authoritarian and anti-American, and has vowed to carry on the fight against the Americans.近日，特朗普表示，美国在这场战争中已经摧毁了伊朗的两个政权，而第三个、更为顺从的政权现已就位。然而，由哈梅内伊领导的现任政府仍然是神权专制、反美的，并誓言将继续与美国人作战。Mr. Trump has pointed to other goals: He has said he wants to seize Iran’s oil, and he brings up the nuclear program regularly. He also has discussed with U.S. military leaders whether American troops could enter Iran to seize a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that is believed to be in tunnels sealed by rubble as a result of American airstrikes last June.特朗普还提出了其他目标：他表示希望掌控伊朗的石油资源，并经常提及核计划问题。他还曾与美军领导人讨论，是否派遣美军进入伊朗，夺取一批被认为储存在隧道中的高浓铀库存——这些隧道因去年6月美军空袭而被碎石封堵。Iranian officials think they are fighting for the government’s very survival, given the strength of the American and Israeli attack, according to current and former officials. Some Iranian officials are skeptical that any peace deal would be lasting. Their leadership fears Israel could carry out a new attack months later even if Iran were to enter into a deal, U.S. officials said.现任及前任官员称，鉴于美以攻击的强度，伊朗官员认为自己是在为政权的生存而战。一些伊朗官员对任何和平协议的持久性持怀疑态度。美国官员表示，伊朗领导层担心，即便达成协议，以色列也可能在数月后再次发动攻击。The U.S. intelligence assessments saying that Iran is not currently ready to make a deal have not been previously reported. The Washington Post earlier reported that U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Iranian officials think they have the upper hand in the war.有关美国情报评估认为伊朗目前不准备达成协议的报道此前尚未公开。《华盛顿邮报》早些时候报道称，美国情报机构评估认为，伊朗官员认为自己在这场战争中占了上风。Pakistan has become an intermediary in the diplomatic efforts because of ties between Pakistani and Iranian military leaders. In recent days, Pakistan has persuaded China to join it in publicly calling for an end to the war. China has commercial and military ties to Iran and is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, but has been reluctant to engage in substantial diplomacy on the war.由于巴基斯坦与伊朗军方领导人之间的密切联系，巴基斯坦已成为外交斡旋的中间方。近日，巴基斯坦说服中国与其一道公开呼吁结束战争。中国与伊朗在商业和军事上都有联系，也是伊朗石油的最大买家，但一直不愿就这场战争展开实质性的外交斡旋。China and Pakistan put out a joint five-point statement on Tuesday that called for, among other things, a cessation of hostilities and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to ship traffic. Iran has been letting China-bound ships cross the strait, but countries across Asia and elsewhere are starting to plan for dire fuel shortages.中国和巴基斯坦周二发布了一份五点联合声明，其中呼吁停止敌对行动，并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的航运。伊朗目前允许前往中国的船只通过该海峡，但亚洲及其他地区的国家已开始为严重的燃料短缺做准备。Asked whether China could be a guarantor of a diplomatic agreement, Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in a statement that “China supports all efforts conducive to easing tensions, de-escalating the situation and restoring dialogue.”当被问及中国是否可以成为外交协议的担保方时，中国驻华盛顿大使馆的发言人刘鹏宇在声明中表示：“中国支持一切有助于缓和紧张局势、推动局势降温并恢复对话的努力。”“We call on parties to start peace talks as soon as possible,” he added. “We stand ready to enhance communication and coordination with Pakistan and others to jointly work for a cease-fire and peace and stability in the region.”他还补充说：“我们呼吁有关各方尽快启动和平谈判。中方愿同巴基斯坦及其他各方加强沟通协调，共同推动停火，实现地区和平稳定。”Farnaz Fassihi自纽约、Leily Nikounazar自布鲁塞尔对本文有报道贡献。黄安伟(Edward Wong)为《纽约时报》报道全球事务、美国外交政策和国务院新闻。Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。