Energy prices affect inflation and disposable incomeHigher energy prices hit both sides of the Fed's mandateSo far the war is showing up in gasoline prices but not yet economic dataUncertainty and risks have increased in both directionsIt takes months or even years for energy to work its way throughMarkets are pretty optimistic that oil prices will come back downIt's too soon for energy to hit jobs marketEconomy is low hire, low fireFor jobs, the expectation is modest hiringFed prices has been static all week at about a 30% chance of a cut in December. Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls could jar that number but the war in Iran is the bigger factor. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.