Fundamental Market Analysis for April 3, 2026 EURUSDEuro/US DollarSAXO:EURUSDFresh-Forexcast2004EUR/USD is trading near 1.15400 and is gradually turning lower: the market once again favors the US dollar when geopolitical risks rise and oil prices climb. Against this backdrop, participants reduce risk appetite and become more cautious toward currencies that are sensitive to energy costs and business activity in Europe. The key driver is heightened tension around Iran and the threat of further escalation, which supports demand for the dollar and pushes commodity prices higher. More expensive energy increases inflationary pressure while simultaneously worsening the growth outlook in the euro area, making the euro less resilient even during rebound attempts. Additional attention today is focused on US labor market data: strong figures could strengthen expectations that interest rates in the US will remain high and may further support the dollar. In the euro area, policymakers are discussing how far energy-driven price growth could become entrenched, but the risk of slower economic growth limits room for tougher decisions. Under these conditions, the base case is continued pressure on the pair. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.15400, SL 1.15600, TP 1.14500