XAUUSD – Full Market Analysis with Trading PlanGoldOANDA:XAUUSDFMFinancialAdvisor XAUUSD – Full Market Analysis with Trading Plan Date: 17 November 2025 Time: 9:35 AM (GMT+6) --- Market Structure Overview Gold is currently in a clear bearish correction phase. Although the higher timeframe remains bullish, the strong rejection from the premium zone (4240–4180) has shifted the market into an intraday bearish structure. The market is now moving inside a compressive mid-range zone (4090–4100), which usually signals liquidity building before a major move. There are equal lows and untouched liquidity below the current price, suggesting a high probability of a downside continuation. --- Trend Direction The daily structure is still in a corrective bullish trend, but short-term bearish pressure dominates. The 4H chart shows a clean BOS to the downside with impulsive bearish candles, confirming weakness in the market. Both the 1H and 15M charts show multiple CHoCH shifts to the downside, confirming intraday bearish continuation. The directional bias remains bearish until below-side liquidity is swept. --- Key Market Levels Premium Supply (Strong Sell Zones): 4140 4180 Mid-Range (No-Trade Zone): 4090–4100 Discount Demand (Main Buy Zone): 4030 3990 Deep Demand (Maximum Safety Buy Zone): 3960 Liquidity Areas: Liquidity above: 4140, 4180 Liquidity below: 4070, 4030, 3990 --- Smart Money Concept Analysis The market has already swept top-side liquidity from the 4180–4240 region. This was followed by a strong downside impulsive displacement, which aligns with SMC principles and confirms bearish continuation. Below the current price, equal lows remain at 4030–4050 — a one-sided liquidity pool. Until this liquidity is swept, the probability of a true bullish reversal remains low. Smart money typically shifts direction only after sweeping liquidity. --- Fibonacci Analysis Using 4240 as the swing high and 3990 as the swing low: • The 78.6% retracement at 4170 produced a strong rejection • The 61.8% retracement at 4140 also produced rejection • Price is now compressing around the 38.2% region, which usually acts as a continuation zone This Fibonacci structure supports the bearish continuation bias. --- RSI & Volume Analysis RSI on both 4H and 1H shows declining momentum and weak buyers. Volume decreases during pullbacks and increases during impulsive drops — a textbook bearish continuation signal. Low sideways volume indicates an upcoming breakout. --- Fundamental Alignment USD remains short-term strong due to stable inflation pressure and weak risk sentiment. Fundamentals fully support the bearish structure visible in technical analysis. --- Final Market Bias Gold’s immediate direction favors a downward liquidity sweep toward: 4030 3990 Strong bullish reaction may appear only after these levels are taken. Until 4030 is swept, buy setups remain low accuracy. Sell setups remain the high-probability opportunity. --- Trading Plan (High-Accuracy Institutional Setup) --- Primary Trading Setup – Sell Plan Sell Zones: 4140 Optional deeper pullback: 4180 Entry Confirmation: Bearish CHoCH on 5M or 15M Rejection wick from the zone Volume spike on sell-side activity Stop Loss: 4200 (safe HTF invalidation point) Take Profit Levels: TP1 → 4070 TP2 → 4030 TP3 → 3990 (main liquidity target) Why this setup works: Selling from premium zones gives the highest accuracy because: • Liquidity above has been swept • Buyers remain weak • Structure is bearish • Macro fundamentals favor downside --- Secondary Trading Setup – Buy Plan Buy setups are valid only after price sweeps 4030 or dips toward 3990. Blind buying without liquidity sweep is unsafe. Buy Zones: 4030 Safer buy: 3990 Entry Confirmation: Clear liquidity sweep Long wick rejection Bullish BOS on 5M Rising buy-side volume Stop Loss: 3960 (below deep liquidity) Take Profit Levels: TP1 → 4070 TP2 → 4100 TP3 → 4140 Why this setup works: 4030 and 3990 represent: • Higher timeframe demand • Equal lows • A major liquidity pool This makes it the most powerful reversal zone. --- Scalping Setup (15M) Valid only if the market taps the demand zone. Entry between 4035–4025 after a quick sweep SL: below 3990 TP: 4070 --- Avoid Zone 4090–4100 This is a manipulation zone where liquidity builds, but direction remains unclear. RR is worst here, so no trades should be taken in this area. --- Final Conclusion Gold remains short-term bearish, with a high probability of sweeping downside liquidity. The safest and highest-accuracy trades remain: • Selling from the premium zones (4140–4180) • Buying only after the liquidity sweep at 4030–3990 The market will not provide any reliable high-accuracy setups outside these zones.