S&P 500 Technical & Fundamental Outlook — Week of Nov 17–21 2025S&P 500SP:SPXSteveGold325S&P 500 – 1H Technical Breakdown Price is sitting inside a well-defined symmetrical wedge, created by a series of lower highs pressing down from above and higher lows building from below. The market has been tightening for several sessions, and it’s now approaching the point where volatility usually picks up. Immediate resistance: 6,793 (intraday pivot) 6,845–6,860 (previous supply zone) 6,922 (major level above the wedge) Key support: 6,705–6,675 (rising trendline support) 6,600 6,550 (broad structural support below) The recent rejection off the upper trendline shows sellers are still defending that zone, but buyers continue to step in at higher lows. The structure is neutral overall, but it’s clearly coiling for a directional move. Upside needs: A clean break above the descending trendline and a push over 6,793 would open the door toward 6,845, with room toward 6,922 if momentum follows through. Downside needs: A breakdown under the rising support and a close below 6,675 exposes 6,600, with 6,550 as the next major area below. Until one of those levels gives way, it’s just tightening inside the wedge. S&P 500 – Fundamental Summary The market spent most of the week stuck between mixed macro signals, Fed uncertainty, and a sharp rotation out of the AI/tech trade. Stocks initially bounced early in the week, but momentum faded after several Fed officials pushed back against expectations for a December rate cut. The government shutdown ending helped sentiment, but the delay in economic data releases kept visibility low and added to the hesitation. Tech was the clear weak spot. A post from Michael Burry questioning hyperscaler spending, depreciation assumptions, and AI valuations triggered more profit-taking in the sector. His criticism—paired with his Palantir short—sparked debate and pulled money out of AI names for a second straight week. As tech cooled, leadership shifted toward defensive and value sectors like healthcare, staples, materials, and energy. Looking ahead, Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday are the biggest single catalyst. The market is treating it as a referendum on the entire AI theme: a strong report could reignite the trade, while weak guidance could deepen the recent rotation. Outlook for Next Week Major indices (SPX, COMP, NDX, SOX) are all testing their 50-day moving averages, and so far those levels are holding. That puts the market in position for a potential rebound early next week, especially given positive seasonality into late November and year-end performance chasing from fund managers. One red flag: the VIX is elevated near 20 and not responding to Friday’s rebound. That kind of volatility behavior sometimes precedes another leg down. House view: Moderately bullish into the first half of next week as long as the indices hold above their 50-day moving averages. Nvidia’s results remain the wild card. A strong NVDA print likely sparks an AI rebound; a weak one likely drags the entire market lower. Key Catalysts to Watch 1. Economic Data (finally resuming after shutdown delays) Empire State Manufacturing Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Housing Starts, Building Permits Philly Fed Index Jobless Claims Michigan Consumer Sentiment Delayed CPI and PPI reports should hit in early/mid-December. 2. Earnings Major reports: Nvidia (NVDA) – biggest market driver of the week Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT) – consumer spending Palo Alto (PANW), Baidu (BIDU), PDD, NIO, TJX, XPeng, Intuit, Ross Stores Retail earnings will give deeper insight into demand and holiday spending. 3. The Fed & Rates Fed speakers turned notably more hawkish: Mary Daly called a December cut “premature” Raphael Bostic stressed inflation risk over labor softness Susan Collins expects rates to stay steady “for some time” As a result: December rate-cut odds fell from 66% → 41% Treasury yields ticked higher The bond market is reassessing how much easing is realistic in 2025–2026 GDPNow remains strong at 4.0%, but the shutdown likely dents Q4 numbers. Market Themes to Watch Tech Rotation High valuations + Burry commentary + earnings uncertainty = cooling off in tech and AI names. AI Inflection Point Nvidia will likely determine whether the recent pullback becomes: A buying opportunity or The start of a deeper correction in the AI trade Breadth Concerns Fewer stocks are trading above their 50-day average—classic sign of a tiring rally. Seasonality Late November into December is historically strong, and funds that are underperforming may chase performance if NVDA reignites momentum. Bottom Line The market is at a pivotal spot: Technical support is holding (50-day MAs). Fundamentals are mixed but leaning positive if Nvidia delivers. VIX is a risk factor that can’t be ignored. If NVDA beats → risk-on, AI rebound, SPX likely pushes higher. If NVDA disappoints → tech drags lower, SPX likely breaks support levels.