BOJ likely to hike in December as yen slide boosts inflation risk, Reuters poll shows

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The Bank of Japan appears poised to raise interest rates at its December 18-19 meeting, according to a new Reuters poll showing a slim majority of economists expecting the policy rate to rise to 0.75% from 0.50%. While forecasts remain finely balanced, 53% of respondents (43 of 81) see a December move, and all economists who offered a view said rates would reach at least 0.75% by the end of Q1 2026.Economists said the yen’s renewed weakness — hitting a 10-month low against the dollar and a record low versus the euro — has strengthened the case for tightening by raising the risk of imported inflation. The BOJ last hiked rates by 25bp in January.The poll also suggests wage momentum will remain solid, though slightly softer than this year. Economists expect next year’s labour-talk wage gains to average 4.9%, down from 5.25% this year, but supported by robust corporate earnings. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled that the spring wage negotiations will be central to judging the timing of further hikes.While Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has urged the BOJ to tread carefully and align policy with the government’s reflation strategy, economists say underlying demand remains firm despite Japan’s recent GDP contraction, which they attribute largely to temporary factors. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.