Policy AnalysisEuro vs United States DollarTICKMILL:EURUSDThorne-Federal Reserve: Rising hawkish sentiment, reduced expectations for rate cuts but unchanged cycle - Officials intensively released hawkish signals: Dallas Fed President Logan explicitly stated against rate cuts in December, Bosick emphasized the need to base policy decisions on the latest data, Collins pointed out that the threshold for further rate cuts is extremely high, and the probability of rate cuts in December has dropped below 50% to 44.4%. - Long-term easing logic not broken: Despite the cooling of short-term rate cut expectations, the market still has the expectation of cumulative rate cuts of 100 basis points by 2026. The long-term trend of interest rate decline is irreversible, and the long-term interest rate spread advantage of the US dollar will continue to narrow.European Central Bank: Focus on stability, policy stability superior to that of the Federal Reserve - Adhering to the "wait-and-see" stance: Maintained the key interest rate at 2% for four consecutive times, officials' statements were cautious but no easing signals were released. Dekindos, although warning of tariff and sovereign debt risks, did not undermine the confidence in returning inflation to the target. - Potential for spread convergence: The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently 140.6 basis points higher than the German government bond yield, although still at a high level, it has slightly narrowed compared to the previous 137.7 basis points of the spread. As the long-term rate cuts of the Federal Reserve are implemented, the convergence of spreads will become the core driving force for the euro's upward movement. Trading Strategy for EUR/USD buy：1.15100-1.15200 tp:1.15800-1.16000 sl:1.14900