BTC corrective map: cluster buys vs 95.7k supplyBitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDOx_kali__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC remains in a corrective phase just above 93k after a sequence of lower highs, sitting on stacked demand while overhead supply caps bounces. Momentum is cautious and event-driven; treat key zones like checkpoints in a tough dungeon. Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral drift with sellers fading bounces under 95.7k; 1D holds uptrend but 12H remains down. Key levels: - Resistances (3D/1D/4H): 95,700 (3D), 98,300 (1D), 100,400 (4H pivot zone). - Supports (1D/12H/2–6H/3D): 93,900 (12H–1D floors), 92,900–93,400 (Cluster A, 2H–6H), 90,950 (3D pivot low). Volumes: Moderate overall; notable very high spikes on 15m selloffs. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D Up vs 12H/6H/4H/2H Down; average trend Down. Longs are tactical until 12H flips Up and price reclaims 93,900. Harvest zones: 93,400 (Cluster A) / 93,915–93,924 (Cluster B) — ideal dip-buy zones for inverse pyramiding when ≥2H reversal confirms. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral sell — risk-off tilt that tempers long follow-through, aligning with the corrective momentum. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ With a corrective regime and mixed MTF, stay tactical: favor reactive buying at defined demand with confirmation and fading into first HTF resistance. Global bias: Neutral sell while below 93,900–95,700; invalidation of bearish bias on strong reclaim and hold above 98,300. Opportunities: - Tactical buy: 92,900–93,400 reaction (≥2H reversal) aiming 93,900 → 95,700. - Breakout buy: Acceptance above 93,900 opens 95,700; continuation through 98,300 targets 100,400. - Tactical sell: Fade 95,700 or 98,300 rejections back toward 93,900/93,200. Risk zones / invalidations: - A sustained close below 92,400 hands control to sellers; a break below 90,950 invalidates the long thesis and exposes lower supports. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC Minutes, US jobs, and NVDA earnings could drive acceptance/rejection around 93k clusters. - ETF outflows act as a headwind to durable breakouts. - ECB balanced tone, Japan tax/policy shifts constructive medium term but not immediate. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 93,400 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 89,700–87,800 (-4/-6% below Palier 1) - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (95,700) - Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low (90,900) or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF (95,700) on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Across timeframes, HTF support is dense near price, but LTFs lean down and supply is heavy overhead. 1D: Still Up structurally; sitting on higher-timeframe demand with 93,900 as the nearby reclaim that improves odds toward 95,700/98,300. 12H/6H/4H/2H: Downtrends intact; bounces sold below 95,700; key support cluster at 92,900–93,400 for potential reversals. 1H/30m/15m: Weak intraday structure with sell spikes; liquidity magnets at 92,900 and 91,100–91,300; need strong wick rejections for tactical longs. Major confluence: ISPD Cluster A (92,900–93,400) over AGG ≈ price with 3D pivot low at 90,950 below; together they frame asymmetric long attempts if ≥2H confirms. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed-to-risk-off: ETF outflows, policy/event risk, and stronger USD tone cap upside until reclaimed levels prove persistence. Macro events: FOMC Minutes, US labor data, and Flash PMIs set the near-term volatility path; NVDA earnings can sway risk appetite; ECB is balanced but flags correction risk; Japan’s tax/policy headlines constructive medium term. Bitcoin analysis: Sub-100k/102k regime with 97,500–100,000 as key reclaim to improve structure; below 92,000 opens deeper supports cited by multiple desks. On-chain data: Not provided; flows narrative leans risk-off via ETFs, dampening sustained rallies. Expected impact: Event-driven two-way trade; until 97,500–100,000 is reclaimed, respect downside tails and use confirmed reactions at clusters. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC trades in a corrective environment with dense support beneath and strong supply above. - Trend is neutral-to-bearish short term while 12H remains Down; 1D resilience allows tactical bounces if 93,900 is reclaimed. - Best setup: Confirmed ≥2H reversal in 92,900–93,400, scale out at 93,900 → 95,700; fade 95,700/98,300 if rejection. - Key macro factor: ETF outflows plus FOMC/Jobs/NVDA volatility may decide the next leg. Stay patient, define risk at 90,900, and harvest volatility only on confirmed signals.