GBPUSD OUTLOOK 17 - 21 NOV 2025British Pound / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:GBPUSDKeyserfxLast week we saw UK Claimant count come in higher than expected indicating a slowing down of the labor market. This Wednesday we have a forecast of 3.6% CPI which is lower than the previous 3.8%. If CPI comes in as expected that will be bearish on the the Pound and more so if it is lower than expected. With lower CPI and higher unemployment the logical outcome should be for interest rates being reduced which is bearish for GBP. On the dollar we have sticky inflation which came in at 3%. Lower than the expected 3.1% however higher than the previous reading of 2.9%. This week we have FOMC minutes on Wednesday and NFP on Thursday. NFP forecast is 58K which is much higher than the previous 28K. NFP coming in as expected or better yet higher would support my GBPUSD short idea as the FED should consider the risk to inflation more. Powell also said that a cut in December is not locked in and they will also be looking at the data for inflation and the labor market to make their final decision. This analysis outlines everything I want to see for a high probability short on this pair both fundamentally and technically. For a bullish scenario all figures would be the opposite of what I want to see. Trade safe and don't get margin called.