Bitcoin trading strategyBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDThorne-New Dimension of Core Logic: Breaking Out of Liquidity Traps, Focusing on Structural Variables 1. Whale Behavior Dimension: Selling by Veteran Whales Nears End, New Capital Absorbs Chips Secretly The core driver of this round of decline is the "exit of long-term holders" rather than the flight of short-term speculators. Over the past 30 days, long-term holders sold 815,000 Bitcoins, a new high since the start of 2024. Among them, "veteran whales" holding for over seven years sold at a rate exceeding 1,000 Bitcoins per hour. However, key signals have emerged: on-chain data shows that the daily net selling volume of whales has dropped from a peak of 50,000 Bitcoins to the current 12,000 Bitcoins, and the sold chips have flowed concentratedly into institutional wallets such as Strategy. The company has recently increased its holdings by 397 Bitcoins with a total position cost of $74,057, and the current floating profit exceeds 23%. This swap structure of "veteran whale liquidation + new institutional absorption" means that $91,700 has entered the phase of "marginal attenuation of selling pressure," providing a chip foundation for a short-term rebound. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. Derivatives Market Dimension: Surge in Option Protection Demand, Imminent Break of Futures Long-Short Balance The derivatives market presents dual characteristics of "extreme risk aversion + leverage squeeze": Deribit data shows that the trading volume of put options with strike prices between $90,000 and $95,000 has surged, and the option market fear index (CVIX) has risen to a high of 65, reflecting the extreme pricing of downside risks by the market. But the futures market has shown signs of reversal: 180,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, including $510 million in long liquidations and $170 million in short liquidations, indicating that the long leverage squeeze is drawing to a close. Meanwhile, although the funding rate remains at -0.12%, the short position concentration has reached 78% (exceeding the 90th historical percentile), facing a "short squeeze risk." Historical data shows that when the short position concentration exceeds 75% and CVIX breaks through 60, the probability of a price rebound within 48 hours reaches 76%. Bitcoin trading strategy buy：91000-92000 tp:94000-95000 sl：90000