The Financial Times has reported that Oracle's $ORCL $300 billion OpenAI deal is already underwater, now worth MINUS 74 billion. Back in September, Oracle and OpenAI announced a massive $300 billion cloud computing deal that sent Oracle's stock soaring. Two months later, the market is telling a different story. Oracle's stock has crashed, wiping out roughly $315 billion in market value more value destroyed than the entire deal was supposed to be worth. The real warning sign is in the credit default swaps chart. These are insurance policies against corporate bankruptcy and Oracle's costs have more than doubled to two year highs. When this bankruptcy insurance gets expensive, it means Wall Street thinks there's real risk Oracle can't pay its bills. Here's the problem though Oracle already carries $104 billion in debt and needs to spend $80 billion per year building AI data centers to fulfill this deal. They're financing this almost entirely through debt expected to nearly double their net debt to $290 billion by 2028. Meanwhile, OpenAI is supposed to pay Oracle $60 billion annually but OpenAI only made $13 billion in total revenue in 2025 and isn't profitable yet. The startup is essentially supposed to spend five times more on Oracle than it makes in revenue. If OpenAI can't secure continued funding or the AI hype deflates, Oracle is stuck with hundreds of billions in infrastructure nobody can pay for. OpenAI may not be a customer that can pay their obligations. Some are even comparing Oracle's credit default swap levels to banks in mid-2007 right before the financial crisis.   submitted by   /u/Quixotus [link]   [comments]