19/11/25 BO Above TTR, Test 20-EMA, Bulls Need FT BuyingCrude Palm Oil FuturesMYX:FCPO1!Tech_Trader88Tuesday’s candlestick (Nov 18) was a bull bar closing near its high with a small tail above. In our previous report, we said traders would watch whether the market continues to chop sideways within the tight trading range formed in the last 10 trading days, or if the market breaks from either direction. Expect breakouts from trading ranges to fail 80-90% of the time. The market formed a breakout above the tight trading range. The bulls hope the current decline will form a major higher low. They want a pullback to the 20-day EMA. They got what they wanted in Tuesday night's session. They must now produce strong consecutive bull bars to show they are clearly in control. If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low, followed by a second leg sideways to up. The bears’ measured-move target, based on the height of the prior trading range, projects toward the 4000–3950 area. The selloff formed a tight bear channel, indicating strong bearish sentiment and persistent selling pressure. They see the current move as a pullback. They want it to stall around the 20-day EMA, followed by a second leg sideways to down. At the least, they want a retest of the November 18 low, even if it only forms a higher low. Fundamentals • Production: SPPOMA about flat in the first 15 days. • Refineries: Buying interest remains, though not paying premiums vs spot futures. • Exports: ITS said exports are down 15.50% in the first 15 days. Overall, the market sold off in a tight bear channel, indicating strong selling momentum. The market remains Always-In-Short. The selloff, however, is slightly climactic and has a parabolic wedge shape. The market may need to form a minor pullback before resuming its decline. The market has formed a pullback to the 20-day EMA today. For now, odds still slightly favor the first pullback being minor, followed by a retest of the Nov 18 low, even if it only forms a higher low. Today (Wednesday, Nov 19), traders will watch if the bulls can get a strong follow-through bull bar, closing above the 20-day EMA. Or if the candlestick will close below the middle of its range, and with a long tail above? Andrew