JESS BIDGOOD, DAVID E. SANGER2025年11月20日特朗普总统周二在白宫会见了沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesThe message coming out of the elections this month could not have been clearer: Americans are worried about their economy.本月的选举传出的信息再清楚不过：美国人对本国的经济感到忧心忡忡。The moment might have called for President Trump to pack a bag and head for a Midwestern factory, or to hold a heartland round table about the falling price of oil. He did not (although my colleague Alan Rappeport reports that Trump plans to do more travel like that soon). And while he has made a point of talking about affordability, he currently appears keenly focused on matters further afield — just as he has for much of his presidency.特朗普总统在此时此刻本应收拾行李，前往中西部的一家工厂，或者在心脏地带举办一场关于油价下跌的圆桌会议。他没有这么做（尽管我的同事艾伦·拉佩波特报道，特朗普计划近期安排更多此类行程）。虽然他确实强调了“生活成本”问题，但目前他显然把精力高度集中在更遥远的事务上——正如其任期多数时间所做的那样。This week alone, the president lavished praise and hospitality on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, waving away concerns about his role in the gruesome 2018 murder of a Washington Post columnist, Jamal Khashoggi. My colleagues reported yesterday that Trump has authorized C.I.A. plans for covert action in Venezuela, as the administration escalates pressure on the government of Nicolás Maduro that has led to the deployment of the largest U.S. aircraft carrier to the region.仅在本周，总统就对沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼极尽赞美与款待，完全无视对方在2018年残忍杀害《华盛顿邮报》专栏作家贾迈勒·卡舒吉一案中所扮演的角色。我的同事们昨天报道，特朗普已批准中情局在委内瑞拉开展秘密行动，同时政府对尼古拉斯·马杜罗政权加大施压，在该地区部署美国最大的航母。Beyond that, there was Trump’s $20 billion bailout for Argentina and, this summer, his bombing of Iran over objections from many of his isolationist supporters.除此之外，还有特朗普给阿根廷的200亿美元救助计划，以及今年夏天不顾许多孤立主义者的反对，轰炸了伊朗。This is fueling cracks in the MAGA firmament, and it’s worrying Trump backers who wanted him to avoid foreign entanglements. But my colleague David Sanger, the White House and national security correspondent for The New York Times, says that anyone waiting for Trump to turn inward might be missing the point.这种做法正在MAGA阵营内部制造裂痕，也让那些希望特朗普避免卷入海外事务的支持者感到不安。但我在《纽约时报》负责白宫与国家安全报道的同事戴维·桑格表示，那些等着特朗普“向内转”的人可能根本没搞懂重点。Earlier today, I asked David to explain what, nearly a year into Trump’s second term, “America First” seems to mean to the president. Trump, he says, is less an isolationist than a unilateralist who believes his dealings with foreign powers are the key to ensuring American prosperity. But his approach, David says, is creating political risks for Trump — and national security risks for the nation.今天早些时候，我请戴维解释，在特朗普第二任期即将满一年的此刻，“美国优先”对他来说到底意味着什么。他说，特朗普其实不是孤立主义者，而是一个单边主义者，他相信自己与外国打交道的方式才是保障美国繁荣的关键。但这种做法正给特朗普带来政治风险，也给国家带来安全风险。Trump has promised that tariffs and trade deals would improve the American economy. How deeply has that belief shaped his dealings with other countries?特朗普一直承诺，关税和贸易协议能够改善美国经济。这种信念在多大程度上塑造了他与其他国家打交道的方式？Trump’s foreign policy is built around extracting commitments to invest in the United States. Over time, striking deals has come to replace having a big strategic view of American relations with major powers.特朗普的外交政策核心就是逼迫对方承诺向美国投资。随着时间推移，“做交易”已经取代了对美国与大国关系进行宏观战略规划的做法。We saw this when Trump met Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, a few weeks ago. They focused on finding a resolution to a crisis Trump had created by raising tariffs on China, to which the country retaliated by cutting off rare earths, magnets and other critical material that China dominates. They made a deal — and Trump declared it a huge success — but what was missing was discussion of Taiwan, or China’s incursions into territory around the Philippines, or Beijing’s nuclear program, arguably the fastest-growing in the world.几周前特朗普会见中国领导人习近平时就是如此。两人把主要精力放在解决特朗普加征关税所引发的危机上——中国则以切断其占据垄断地位的稀土、磁体等关键材料的供应作为报复。他们达成了一项协议，特朗普宣称这是巨大成功——但完全没有谈到台湾、中国对菲律宾周边领土的侵犯，以及北京的核计划——其发展速度是目前世界上最快的。Fast forward to this week with the Saudi crown prince. We saw the same thing happen again. Prince Mohammed said he would invest nearly a trillion dollars in the United States — although he did not say over what period of time. In return, he got a commitment from Trump for access to F-35 stealth fighters and the world’s fastest computer chips, critical for artificial intelligence. And he managed to sidestep, at least for the next few years, the one big security issue on which Trump wanted progress: getting the Saudis to sign the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel.快进到本周与沙特王储的会晤，又是同样的剧本。王储表示将向美国投资近万亿美元（不过他没说时间跨度）。作为回报，特朗普承诺他将得到获取F-35隐形战机和全球最快人工智能芯片的机会。而他成功地把特朗普最想推进的那件大事——让沙特签署《亚伯拉罕协议》并承认以色列——至少往后推了几年。In other words: The business deals not only become the core of the Trump foreign policy, but they tend to edge out the larger security issues. Where does Venezuela fit into all this?换句话说：商业交易不仅成了特朗普外交政策的核心，而且往往把更大的安全议题挤到一边。那么委内瑞拉在这幅图景里处于什么位置？At first glance, it doesn’t. Here we have the president, on the basis of concerns about drug imports to the U.S. and illegal immigration, going after Venezuela. The country is a source of cocaine, but not fentanyl. And it is hardly the biggest strategic challenge facing the United States. But there is one part of the Venezuelan story that has seized Trump’s attention and dominates his conversations with his aides, and that’s that the country is sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves.乍看之下完全不搭。这里特朗普以担心毒品流入美国和非法移民为由对委内瑞拉下手。委内瑞拉确实是可卡因来源国，但不是芬太尼。而且它绝非美国面临的最大战略挑战。然而委内瑞拉故事里有一个部分牢牢抓住了特朗普的注意力，也主导了他与幕僚的谈话——那就是该国坐拥全球最大的石油储量。We have some indications that oil has been at the center of the back-channel negotiations between the administration and Maduro. Is that the reason that Trump is putting 15 percent or more of our naval capacity in the Caribbean?我们能看到一些迹象表明，石油一直是美国政府与马杜罗之间秘密谈判的核心。这是否就是特朗普把15%甚至更多海军力量部署到加勒比地区的原因？You could argue that we are seeing a return to the gunboat diplomacy of more than a century ago, when we and other powers, like the British and the French, would intimidate a smaller country with a naval fleet to force a deal.可以说，这有点像回归一个多世纪前的“炮舰外交”——当时我们以及英国、法国等列强，会用舰队威慑小国，逼迫对方就范。So, to Trump, critics who say he’s focused on foreign policy at the expense of the domestic economy are drawing a false dichotomy. He believes the two are related.所以，在特朗普认为，那些批评他“顾外不顾内”、牺牲国内经济去搞外交的人，其实是基于一个不存在的二元对立。他相信这两者是紧密相连的。Trump, at his core, understands that this is a global economy. To Trump, it’s all an effort to ensure that America remains the world’s dominant economic and technological power, at a moment when its status is threatened more than ever by China.特朗普骨子里明白当今是全球化经济。对他来说，所有这些努力都是为了确保美国在自身地位受到中国前所未有的威胁之际，继续保持世界头号经济与科技强国地位。What kind of political risk does he face as a result of this approach?这种做法会给他带来什么样的政治风险？There’s huge political risk here for him. Remember George H.W. Bush? He had a huge American victory in the Persian Gulf war, which ratified the strength of the United States as the Soviet Union was collapsing. Yet he lost in 1992 because people thought he wasn’t paying attention to supermarket prices.风险非常大。还记得老布什吗？他在海湾战争中大胜，正值苏联解体，美国国力如日中天，可1992年还是因为民众觉得他不关心超市物价而落选。And are there security risks, too?另外也存在安全风险吗？In Trump’s first term, his national security strategy focused on turning the United States away from counterterrorism, and toward a focus on the rise of China and Russia. It’s very hard to square what Trump is doing in Venezuela now with that strategy.在特朗普第一任期，国家安全战略的核心是从反恐转向集中应对中俄崛起。现在他在委内瑞拉的所作所为难与这一战略相符。That aircraft carrier’s presence near Venezuela means that it’s not in the Middle East, where it was defending Israel from Iranian missiles earlier this year. And it’s not in the Indo-Pacific. As Xi Jinping watches this military buildup off Venezuela, he must be delighted, because that buildup was supposed to come in the Indo-Pacific to defend Taiwan. I don’t believe the Chinese thought the U.S. would tie up this much of its military force in the Caribbean.那艘航母停在委内瑞拉附近，就意味着它不在中东（今年早些时候它还在那里为以色列挡伊朗导弹），也不在印太地区。习近平看到美国在加勒比地区进行如此大规模军力集结，一定乐开了花，因为原本这些军力是准备部署到印太地区保卫台湾的。中国人恐怕做梦都没想到美国会把这么多军力拴在加勒比。So yes, it creates strategic risks as well as political ones.所以，是的，这既制造了战略风险，也制造了政治风险。Our conversation was condensed and edited for clarity.以上对话为求清晰进行了提炼和编辑。本文节译自“On Politics”新闻简报。翻译：纽约时报中文网获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site